A quick look at Hartford, the Tuesday opponent for the Bears

Hartford is pretty bad. They are 2-8 against a weak schedule, and ranked 275th in the KenPom ratings.


Joe Zeglinski will run the point, and he has an assist rate in the Top 500 in the country. The Bears have two in the Top 150, so it’s not as if that’s an overly impressive stat for Zeglinski. Morgan Sabia is a 6-8 senior who will man the point. He blocks shots and plays good defense while shooting 55% from the field. Milton Burton and Anthony Minor also man the guard/forward spots, while Genesis Maciel complements Sabia in the lineup.

Say one thing for this team: they’re experienced, and they don’t lose by all that much. While all the team’s they’ve lost to our bad (expect Florida State), they’ve been in every game they’ve played (except FSU). Considering the Bears have had problems putting away any team this year, including the Cal Polys and UC Davis’ of the world, this could spell a close game in Berkeley.

While there is little chance of the Bears losing (3% chance of losing), one has to wonder if the Bears will find themselves in a battle. Hartford, like us, plays awful offense and better defense (Hartford is nowhere near Cal in defense, though). It could be like the 51-41 affair we found ourselves in against Cal Poly.

How is Cal doing at this stage in the season?

Does Mike Montgomery have the Bears in a spot where they want to be?

At the time, California is 6-5. Using only KenPom ratings, they’re ranked as the #75 team in the country. Assuming a victory over Hartford, the Bears would be 7-5 going into Pac-10 conference play. His ranking project them to go 7-11 in Pac-10 play, leaving them at 14-16. Ignoring the projections; has this been a successful non-conference season for Cal?


First, the expected: if one had to forecast the W-L of Cal in the non-conference, you’d probably put victories over CSU Northridge, UC Davis, and Cal Poly in pen. Question mark games would be New Mexico, Southern Mississippi, San Diego State, and Iowa State. Expected losses would be Temple and Kansas. Notre Dame would probably also in the expected loss category, while Boston College probably be there too. Looking at that, you’d expect a record around 5-6.

But looking at the numbers, you have to factor in that the team’s they beat are better than expected. Iowa State, SDSU, New Mexico, and even Southern Miss are surprises in the way they’ve played recently. The Golden Bears have quality wins over Temple, New Mexico, and Iowa State. The only “bad” loss is Southern Miss, who’s actually having a fine year at 9-2. 3 good wins, 0 bad losses? It’s not great, but considering the youth we have it’s definitely what we’re looking for.

An outright success this start is not, but it is definitely not a failure. A 10 win conference season and 2 conference tourney wins would have the Bears at 19 wins, which would be a huge success. When it’s all said and done, Mike Montgomery has done a fine job and the Bears are right where they want to be.

For now

This blog is on hold. I just don’t have the time to maintain it. Maybe I’ll be back soon, maybe I’ll never come back. All I know is that I’m too busy to give the effort required to do what I want to do with the blog.  

Cal loses heartbreaker, 10-9

Okay, sure I was as depressed as anybody last night after the pick and the loss. But for 58 minutes, Cal football was awesome again. Sure, it sucked our offense couldn’t score and we had some problems with the kicking game, but overall I enjoyed that game. I don’t really enjoy getting our butt handed to us (Nevada) or just dominating somebody (Colorado, UC Davis). For 58 minutes, I was in love with Cal football again. Not to say I had fallen out of love, but all I know is that I had some great moments of us dominating that Arizona offense.
Not to say that I enjoyed the end of it. I hated the end. It was the kind of kick you in the nuts game we’re used to being a Cal fan. But after the throwing of things, I realized that this kind of performance is the kind of thing we needed.

Our defense needed to step up. It did. Kevin Riley needed to quit making a crucial mistake. He did. Our offensive line needed to show it could hold up late in the game. They did; they sucked early, but we dominated late when we needed to drive.

So sure, I’m mad. If Giorgio Tavecchio hits one of two really easy kicks, I’m dancing like a madman and celebrating. And if Marvin Jones catches that football, or heck even knocks it in any direction other than one he did, we might be celebrating. The fact is, college football is built on the successes and mistakes of college kids. CALM DOWN EVERYBODY. Go Bears! Beat the bye week!

Cal crushed by Nevada, 52-31

Okay, let’s first fire whoever makes our schedule. A road game against a quality WAC opponent? Why? Why? Why? Just dumb. Make them come to Memorial, not a home and 2 home for us.


Moving on: Come on, Clancy. 52 points? 6.4 yards per rush? 497 total yards? Nevada’s good, but they should not score 45 points on our defense. Our linebackers were ill-prepared, and it just wasn’t a performance we needed. Our offense may be pretty good, but not a 52 point offense. Our coverage was pretty bad too.

It’s easy to blame Kevin Riley for this. WE NEED TO MATCH THEM TD FOH TD! Please, calm down. Coming into the game, if you told me we scored 31 points, I would be pretty confident that we were in the game or won it. We should not have lost by 21. We had over 500 yards of offense. The pick 6 was a potential 14 point swing, which would make it potentially 38-45 final. A 14 point difference changes the whole complexion of the game. And I subscribe to the idea of turnovers=luck largely. Riley’s 3 INTs are painful, but fixable.

Shane Vereen was awesome. One of the few bright spots. If we needed a reminder, Shane Vereen is still awesome.

Okay. Maybe we if we had Mike Mohamed, we win the game. Get well soon, Mike. Just everybody take a deep breath. I was pissed last night, but remember: this has no bearing on our Rose Bowl hopes. Sure, it looks bad and casts a shadow on our season, but if they play like the team we saw the first two weeks we’re still in this thing. Facing Arizona, at Arizona coming off this loss, will be crucial. Win and the season’s back. Lose, and question marks start to rise. Go Bears!

Nevada-Cal: TONIGHT!

The rare Friday game; can’t remember the last time we played on a Friday. I don’t like it, but ESPN coverage!


Anyway, what we should be watching for is the defense, specifically the run defense. The Wolf Pack have a great rushing game, 2 1,000 yard rusher. If we can stop them and their very good passing attack, our defense is pretty darn good. If our offense can’t score relatively easily tonight, then we’re going to have some problems this year.

ADDED: Mike Mohamed is out. Defense, it’s time to step it up. LET’S DO THIS! GO BEARS!

Cal enjoys victory over Colorado, 52-7

I’m not going to post stats on this one; I’m just going to give my impressions.


Cal just dominated the game. Colorado’s offense didn’t do anything, and our offense was able to get much of what they wanted to. Sure, the run game was struggling, but Vereen didn’t get many opportunities. Riley really impressed me; maybe he can be the quarterback we all thought he would be. As a whole, I liked what I saw from the wideouts although I wasn’t overly impressed by one of them. Our backups did far better.

But our defense was incredibly impressive. Rodney Stewart did absolutely nothing at 2.7 yards per carry, and his teammates did less. Hansen averaged under 5 yards per attempt; that’s ridiculous. Maybe Colorado is that bad, or maybe we’re that good. All I know is our defense dominated a Big-12 squad.

The more I see this team, the more I love them. Go Bears!

Get ready for Saturday’s Colorado-Cal game

For all intents and purposes, the seasons start Saturday. UC Davis doesn’t count. All those stats should be thrown out of the book. Who cares? It’s time to buckle your chinstrap and start the “real” season. Colorado might not be a great team, but they can beat us.


Let’s be clear; if Cal brings a solid game to Memorial on Saturday, we should beat these guys. Colorado is a fringe bowl team at this point, but they are eminently beatable. Their QB situation is unsteady, and their running game is still in the okay range. If our defense plays well, we’ll stop them. Our offensive line will show what they’re made of; Colorado’s rush defense is below average, so Vereen should be able to get plenty of yards. If he doesn’t, well we’re in trouble this season. Their pass defense is pretty alright, probably above average; Riley and Allen will have a chance to show what they’re going to be like for the rest of this season. But the run game needs to show what it’s made of today. Cal’s football season, the real one, starts now.

UC Davis clobbered by Cal, 52-3

Let me just start this by saying Keenan Allen is absolutely ridiculous. All those people who said he should be playing safety, please be quiet. He’s about as smooth of a player I’ve seen, and he’s dead quick. He might not be DeSean Jackson, but he’s going to be one of the best players we see for a while.


It was actually only 7-0 going into the second quarter, but Kevin Riley, Keenan Allen and Shane Vereen just took over the game, with 4 combined TD’s in the second to take Davis out of the game. The second half would be more of the same of Cal domination to the final of 52-3.

People I was impressed with first: Kevin Riley was absolutely terrific. I don’t care if he had some problems in the second quarter, he was still awesome and if he can do that the rest of the year, then awesome. DON’T TELL ME IT WAS AGAINST UC DAVIS. Keenan Allen. No further explanation needed. Shane played pretty well. Coleman looked awesome all day, and the secondary (everybody) looked impressive. Chris Conte looked pretty good to me. Marvin Jones was also impressive. Stephens looked good for a fullback in the open field, and Ross was great punt returning. Oh yeah, and the run defense. EVERYBODY WAS GOOD OKAY!

People I was a little disappointed: The offensive line looked good, but I was expecting great against UC Davis. Riley was hit a little too much, and the run game wasn’t as productive as I would’ve liked. The turnovers were not very inspiring. Beau Sweeney didn’t look too good; he looked really nervous and jittery. Hopefully next year he can calm down a bit. That’s it!

GO BEARS!

Keenan Allen is a beast

That is all I can say. I'll write a recap when I've watched the game, but for now: wow. I salute you today Mr. Allen.

A quick look at the rest of the conference

Look, I need to get stuff done quickly. So here’s a look at the rest of the conference, instead of individually.

Arizona Preview: Nick Foles is a funny one; he completes a ton of passes but only has a 6.08 yards per attempt. So the short passing game is where he works his best. He’ll find Juron Criner as his #1 option, who’s a 6-4 beast who caught 9 touchdowns a year ago. They don’t have a solid #2 though. Nic Grigsby and Keola Antolin both ran for over 500 yards last year, and both are very good tail backs. The O-Line had 3 returning starters, and has Adam Grant who is a very good LT and a 2nd team Pac-10 performer last year. The defense looks to be a mess. No linebackers back from a rush defense that wasn’t really that good last year. No interior defensive linemen. Only 2 DE who both are pass rushers, not run stuffers. So look for the run game. The pass defense is good, with the 2 corners starting last year; albeit one at safety. Freshman Marquis Flowers will have a lot of pressure on him to perform at free safety.


Arizona State Preview: The offense is a disaster. Steven Threet, he of 3 colleges, is the starter at QB. He completed 51% of his passes at Michigan and only averaged 5.53 yards per attempt. He’s not so good, or at least wasn’t at UM. Cameron Marshall returns, who played solidly against Cal last year. He averaged 4.4 yards per rush last year in limited time. Time will tell how he holds up over the whole year. Kerry Taylor is okay, at least as a #3 receiver. He’s the #1. Only 23 catches last year for more yards than #2’s Gerell Robinson 26 catches. Other than that, the cupboard is bare at WR. The O-Line loses both tackles, but returns a solid building block in Garth Gerhart. They’ll be serviceable. The Front 7 is absolutely beastly. Lawrence Guy is one of the best DT’s in the country, and the 2 other returning starters on the D-line are no slouch either. Shelly Lyons and Brandon Magee are both pretty good on the outside, no neither is a returning start. But Vontaze Burfict is one of the best linebackers in the conference. The Pac-10 FPOY, Burfict is an absolute man who recorded 69 tackles last year. Look for more this year. Omar Bolden is a solid corner who has 21 career starts, and Deveron Carr received valuable playing time a year ago with 3 starts. The 2 safeties have a combined 7 starts, so the back line is suspect.

Oregon Preview: Darron Thomas won the starting job, and he’ll be one of the best in conference if he can live up to his talent. While he struggled when pressed into duty as a true frosh, Thomas has all the tools and is really smooth with the ball. His passing is a question mark. He can throw to one of the conference’s best, Jeff Maehl, who really stepped up at the end of the year. If he can retain his form look out. DJ Davis and Lavasier Tuinei all are returning starters, and only should get better. LaMichael James, Kenjon Barner, and Lache Seastrunk are all starting-caliber, with “The Michael” being the best of the 3. 6.7 yards per rush and 14 TD is insane. And his line returns all 5 starters. Unless Thomas is Joe Ayoob, Oregon is fine. The D-Line has two studs, pass-rusher Kenny Rowe and run stuffing Brandon Bair, and two question marks, DE Terrell Turner and DT Zac Clark. The Back 7 is terrific too. Paysinger and Matthews are both terrific, and Littlejohn is supposed to be a really good JC recruit. They have plenty of depth there are. The DBs are ridiculous; Cliff Harris and Talmadge Jackson are both great corners, and Eddie Pleasant and John Boyett are just as good of DB’s.

Oregon State Preview: Ryan Katz is a question mark, sure, but he looked decent in limited time last year. They only need him to be serviceable. Jacquizz Rodgers, 1440 yards and 21 TD last year, will run behind 4 returning starters. He’s a beast, and only a junior. James Rodgers had 1034 yards receiving last year; the Rodgers’ just make the offense good. The D-Line returns 3 starters, and Stephen Paea is the best DT in the Pac-10. No run game allowed. The LB’s are a question mark, but Mike Riley has shown time and time again he can come up with a LB from anywhere. With 3 starters back on the secondary, passing should be a chore.

USC Preview: I’ll do this one quick; after all, no postseason right? Matt Barkley’s a bit overrated but he still okay. He throws too many picks (14) and he doesn’t have as many weapons this year; Ronald Johnson is the only receiver with pretty much any sense of experience with Brice Butler coming in behind him. Marc Tyler is hurt every time he’s on the field, but he was a very highly touted out of high school. Only 2 O-Linemen return, so that could be trouble; or not, considering their endless supply of highly touted linemen. Their D-Lineis very good; Nick Perry and Jurell Casey are both beasts. Devon Kennard is an absolute man child, and Malcolm Smith and Michael Morgan are both very good. No returning starters in the DBs, although Shareece Wright was one before he was suspended before the season started.

UCLA Preview: Kevin Prince doesn’t inspire much emotion either way, which is a good thing or a bad one. Hey, he’s not Kevin Craft! They have a nice little staple of backs, with Franklin and Coleman being very good. They have 4 returning starters on the O-Line, and they have the 5th who started before an injury last year. Embree and Rosario both posted solid numbers last year, and Rosario is a legit deep threat. The Front 7 is talented but young and inexperienced, but Akeem Ayers is a beast. The defensive backs are top-notch, including ball-hawk Rahim Moore. Tony Dye is good too.

Washington Preview: Jake Locker is good, but he’s not OMG TOP PLAYER IN THE NATION good. He could take a step forward to be the best QB in conference, or he could stay the same and just be okay. He’s backed by 2 great receivers in James Johnson and Jermaine Kearse. He also has a very good and fast tailback in Chris Polk. The O-Line has 3 returning starters. The defensive backs are very good, with a shutdown corner in Desmond Trufant and two solid safeties. Mason Foster is also a terrific linebacker.

Washington State Preview: Jeff Tuel played well against Cal, even if I didn’t see it. He’s an improvement over past years, at the very least. James Montgomery is a Cal transfer who has plenty of talent; can he live up to it? The O-Line has 4 returning starters but is shaky, and the wide receivers inspire no confidence. Alex Hoffman Ellis and Chima Nwachukwu are anchors for a defense that is improving; with baby steps.

Stanfurd Preview: Andrew Luck grades out well, but not as great as everybody think. His YPA and INTs are good, but he didn’t really throw that many TD’s and with a RB to distract the D he could only manage a 56.2% completion rate. That’s good, but certainly not even a 1st rounder. But OMG TOOLS. Nobody knows anything about Stepfan Taylor or Jeremy Stewart; neither is Toby Gerhart. Chris Owusu is fast but has the dropsies, and Ryan Whalen is a big play threat. He’s pretty good. The O-Line does lose a key starter, but 4 return from a very very good unit. The defense has a questionable secondary; they do return 3 starters but none of them was really that good last year. Shayne Skov and Sione Fua are good as is Thomas Keiser, but the other 4 up there aren’t all that impressive and they were gashed by Cal’s and others run games.

Colorado/Nevada Early Look

Gotta do this quick. Here’s a look at the non-conference slate:


Colorado Passing Game: Colorado won’t do too much damage here. Tyler Hansen, who was announced as the starter, is okay I guess. 9-8 TD to INT ratio and 55.8 completion % is probably what you would define as “meh”. He does have a nice arm and is certainly better than Cody Hawkins. Scotty McKnight is his #1 receiver, and he’s a possession guy more than a big play threat. He caught 76 passes for 11.8 yards per attempt and 6 TD. Behind him is Markques Simas and question marks. Simas is more of a big play guy at 13.6 yards per catch and he certainly is a good athlete with a 6-2 frame. The #3 guy is Toney Clemons, who is a Michigan transfer who nobody can really say anything certain for. He is another tall wideout at 6-2.

Colorado Rushing Game: Rodney Stewart is a solid little guy at 5-6 and he’s very quick and elusive. With 9 TD and 4.1 yards per rush, he could be better. But with all 5 offensive linemen returning, Stewart should have a huge improvement in his numbers. Stewart could easily bust a big run and hurt the Bears. Ryan Miller is the best of the 5 linemen at RG.

Overall Offense Rating: C+.

Colorado Rush Defense: A bad rush D that gave up an average of 161 yards a game last year (!) returns 4 starters in the Front 7 but only 1 linebacker. With the linebackers gone other than BJ Beatty, the struggles should carry on. The top 3 returning tacklers are all defensive backs. They lose 15 TFL. This rush D is in for trouble. Curtis Cunningham is a solid nose tackle, I guess. 41 tackles from him.

Colorado Pass Defense: Both cornerbacks and a safety are the returning safeties, albeit from a unit that gave up over 300 yards to Toledo. Other than that, though they were pretty okay; they allowed their opponents to complete 57.9% of their passes. That’s pretty good. They should only improve, but the question is: are their numbers an aberration due to teams running when way up? The only answer will be found this year.

Overall Defense Rating: C+. Pass defense good; rush defense bad.

Nevada Passing Game: Colin Kaepernick, as a passer, is okay. He’s certainly better than Hansen passing, but he is highly dependent on his Touchdowns to Interceptions: 20 to 6. His yards per attempt is average (7.28), and he only completes 58.9% of his passes. Looking past that, you see a guy who’s nice to have if he just passes. But combine that with his running ability, and you got something good. Anyway, his top 4 receivers return including Brandon Wimberly, who caught 6 touchdowns and 733 yards last year. The other 3 (Tray Session, Chris Wellington and Virgil Green) all had under 400 yards. Wimberly is another tall lanky receiver at 6-3 195.

Nevada Rushing Game: Be afraid; 2 1,000 rushers return. Kaepernick had 16 rushing touchdowns last year for 36 total; he had 7.3 yards per attempt. He’s ridiculous running the football, no doubt. That’s what makes him good. But what about the running back? Vai Taua, other than having an awesome name, is also terrific. He ran for 7.8 yards per attempt and 10 TD; if he can’t be corralled, then we could lose this game. Stop the run=Stop the Wolf Pack.

Overall Offense Rating: B+. If they had those #s with a Pac-10 schedule, then they would be an A.

Nevada Rush Defense: Better than Colorado’s, but against worse competition. Returning 4 starters, 2 linebackers. 3.6 yards per rush against, 112 yards a game. I’d also like to take note that is against WAC competition, so take the numbers with a grain of salt. Dontay Moch is a beast, with 6.5 sacks and 13.5 TFL. Look out for him, There linebackers are no slouch in James-Michael Johnson and Brandon Marshall. They can stop the run.

Nevada Pass Defense: WEAKNESS. 61.5% completion against? Nearly 300 yards per game? Wow. And with both safeties gone and an ex-QB starting at free safety, it doesn’t get any better. They do return 2 corners, but wow. They are highly susceptible to the big play.

Overall Defense Rating: B-.

Cal Prediction

The moment you’ve all been waiting for…I give you my take on how the sturdy Golden Bears will finish the season. Here we go:


Cal Prediction: Cal opens the year with a big win over UC Davis, predictably. They close out the non-conference slate with wins over Colorado and Nevada, though both are tougher then expected. Then the Bears squek a win over Arizona in Tuscon, excorsing the demons. A victory over UCLA bolstered by the home field advantage brings the 5-0 Bears into LA for a huge showdown against USC. With Kevin Riley and Shane Vereen playing spectacularly and a Cal D showing toughness, the Bears grit out an incredibly close win to start 6-0. A win over Arizona State has Cal 7-0. But Corvallis and the tough Beavers prove the Bears undoing yet again, as the undefeated dream ends at 7-1. An easy win over WSU has the Bears on the right track, but a tough and close home loss to Oregon has them back to losing. But the Bears continue their Cardinal dominating into the next decade with a win. Hungover from the Big Game and facing a team that has given them problems in the past, the Bears fall to UW to finish the year 9-3.

And that’s it for my predictions. Here’s how I saw the Pac-10 shaking out:

OS: 8-4 (7-2)

Oregon: 9-3 (6-3)

Cal: 9-3 (6-3)

USC: 9-4 (5-4)

Arizona 7-5 (5-4)

Washington: 7-5 (5-4)

Stanford: 7-5 (4-5)

UCLA: 5-7 (3-6)

ASU: 5-7 (3-6)

WSU: 2-10 (0-9)

Maybe I’m a bit overoptimistic for Cal, but I always am.

Season Forecast: Oregon/Oregon State

Screw this best case/worst case crap. Super quick best/worst.


Oregon Best: 12-0. A perfect season and a berth into the national championship. This team has that kind of potential in my mind.

Oregon Worst: 7-5. They could crash and burn depending on the QB.

Oregon Prediction: Easy win over New Mexico. Close win over Tennessee. Blowout over Portland State and a closer than expected win over ASU due to their talented defense. But Stanford outphysicals them onroute to the upset, then a recovery destruction over WSU. They then reel off 4 incredibly tough wins over UCLA, USC, UW, and Cal. But they close out the year before the Civil War with a loss to Arizona. At 9-2, they are tied for first in the conference with…

Oregon State Prediction: The typically awful start befells the Beavs, as they start at 1-3 with losses to TCU, Boise, and ASU and only a win against Louisville. But they reel off 6 straight wins over UA, UW, Cal, UCLA, WSU, and USC. But a loss to Stanford put them with 2 losses in conference heading into the Civil War…

Civil War/Conference Title Game Prediction: In another Civil War for the Roses, Oregon State and Oregon play one of the best games of the year. James Rodgers catches a winning touchdown in the last minute and OS prevails.

Oregon State Best Case: Rose, 10-2

Oregon State Worst: 6-6. Awful QB, little support.

Season Forecast: Stanford

Stanford Worst Case: The Cardinal look wobbly against Sac State, but still win convincingly. Then it all goes downhill. First, a loss to UCLA. They sneak by Wake Forest. They loss to Notre Dame. Then Oregon. Finally USC. They recover with a win verse Washington State, before dropping 2 more against UW and UA. They finally recover with a win verse ASU, but drop the Big Game and the game against OS. A disappointing 4-8.


Stanford Prediction: The Cardinal wins convincingly over Sac State, prompting “No Luck needed in Stanford blowout,” headlines across the nation. But those headliners are stunned, as UCLA topples the Cardinal in the Rose Bowl. But the resilient Cardinal recover with wins over ND and a huge upset against Oregon, before dropping a game against USC going into the bye. Coming out of the bye, they take out WSU before dropping 2 straight against UW and UA. They dispatch ASU before dropping another epic Big Game against Cal. They close the year with a win over OS to go 7-5.

Season Forecast: UCLA/USC

USC’s best case/worst case has already been done, so it’s just a prediction for them.


USC Prediction: Easy wins over Hawaii, Virginia, Minnesota, and WSU open the year. “NATIONAL CHAMP USC IS BACK!!!” proclaims sportswriters. Then they go out and get ripped to shreds by Jake Locker, who humbles Troy in LA to bring them to 4-1. They recover to beat “what’s your deal?” Stanford, but fall to Furd’s rival Cal the next week. Oregon also defeats the Trojans, but USC recovers with back to back wins over the Arizona schools. Back in hostile Corvallis, OS takes out USC yet again led by the Rodgers. At 7-4, USC wins 2 straight over ND and UCLA to close the year 9-4.

UCLA Best Case: Opening the season with a win over Kansas State is nice. Beating Stanford is even better. Beating Houston and starting 3-0? Priceless. A nailbiter it Texas can’t damper the hopes, as wins over Cal+WSU have UCLA opening the year 5-1. Losing to Oregon is disappointing but expected, and splitting Arizona and Oregon State sends Westwood into bedlam; 6-3 is more wins than they’ve in the last 2 regular seasons. Beating Washington and Arizona State is okay they guess, but they want SC. With a win over the Trojans by 14, UCLA can truly say the monopoly in LA is over. They win the bowl to go 10-3 on the year.

UCLA Worst Case: Loss: Kansas State. Loss: Stanford. Loss: Houston. Loss: Texas. UCLA opens the year 0-4 before finally beating WSU. It doesn’t get better, losing to Cal next and then to Oregon, Arizona, and Oregon State. They do recover to beat UW and ASU, but USC absolutely crushes the Bruins to take hold of LA yet again. 3-9 is the sad sad final.

UCLA Prediction: A loss to Kansas State sends the campus into a panic, but wins over Stanford and Houston calm the masses. A loss to Texas doesn’t make many people angry, and a win over WSU sets them on their way. A loss to Cal is disappointing, as they had hope to defeat big brother. A loss to Oregon is expected, but a win over Arizona gets them back on track. The alternating wins/losses works for them, so they loss to Oregon State but recover to beat Washington. Following the pattern, they are shocked by Arizona State. Needing a win over SC to get to a bowl, UCLA fights but just can’t pull it out to finish 5-7.

Season Forecast: Washington/Washington State

This is the 2nd dual feature here, with Arizona/Arizona State being the first one. Today, it’s the forecast for Washington and Washington State.


Washington, Best Case: Jake Locker avenges a heartbreaking loss against BYU from a game a few years back by making sure the refs can’t decide the game, then takes out Syracuse. Nebraska proves to be too much for the Huskies, but after a bye they upset USC yet again. Wins over Arizona State and Oregon State help prove UW is for real, and then they go on the road to beat Arizona. Stanford is a bad match for UW, but they still get a W. Followed up by a loss to Oregon, the Huskies fall to 6-3. But they close the year with 3 straight wins over UCLA, Cal, and WSU to go 10-2. 2nd place in the Pac-10, they win their bowl.

Washington Worst Case: A loss to BYU dampers hopes, but they respond with a win over Syracuse. Semi-expected losses to Nebraska and USC aren’t heartbreaking, and a win over ASU gets them back on track. Locker gets hurt in that game, and the inexperienced backups take up the slack. But losses to OSU, Arizona, Furd, and Oregon bring the season crashing down. They then lose to UCLA and Cal, putting them at 2-9 going into the Apple Cup. They then lose the Apple Cup to go to 2-10 on the year.

Washington Prediction: UW opens with wins against BYU and Nebraska, and the expectations just keep rising. But a home loss to a tough Nebraska defense takes them back to reality. But then they do it again; they take out the Trojans to go to 3-1. A win over ASU takes them to 4-1. “UW is back!” proclaim the talking head. But losses to Oregon State due to some suspect linebacking, and then a loss to Arizona on the road brings them crashing down to earth. A win over Stanford looks nice, but it follows with a loss to Oregon. A Thursday night upset by UCLA brings them crashing down; at 5-5 will they make a bowl? A win at Cal takes care of those qualms, and then a blowout over WSU brings them to 7-5.

Washington State, Best Case: A win over Oklahoma State is a shock; a Big-12 top team losing to a Pac-10 cellar dweller? A win over SMU sends Pullman into shock; halfway to a bowl with 9 games to play? A loss to USC is disappointing but not unexpected, but then WSU shocks the Bruins on the road to go to 4-1. Losses to Oregon, Arizona, and Stanford are expected, but they respond to a tough stretch with another road win over ASU. 5-4 is perhaps the most shocking mark in the entire nation; can this Cougar team get to a bowl? Losses to Cal and Oregon State takes the Cougs to a winner take all Apple Cup. Washington State does all the little things right, and takes out the Huskies to make to a bowl at 6-6. They even win the bowl to go to 7-6, and Wolff gets an extension.

Washington State, Worst Case: Loss to Oklahoma State. Shocking loss to FCS team Montana State. Loss to C-USA team SMU. Losses to everybody in conference leading up to the Apple Cup. It’s already announced Wolff will be fired going into the Apple Cup. UW sends him out the wrong way, smashing WSU 56-3.

Washington State, Prediction: A win over Oklahoma State, who is losing everything, is shocking. A win over Montana State sends WSU to 2-0, the 1st time since 2005. They lose to SMU, which is painful. But still, they believe they can win a game in conference this year. It doesn’t happen. Not all blowout, mind you; but they just don’t have the guns to pull out a close game. A close loss to UW at the end of the season does little to assuage their sorrow, as a 2-10 season is only a slight improvement.

Arizona State/Arizona Season Forecast

Since I have no time before the season starts, I’ll do these 2 at a time, and very quickly. Quick writing here!


Arizona Best Case: Arizona rolls by Toledo and The Citadel, and then sink Iowa in a huge upset that showcases the spread attack. Arizona continues befuddling Cal in Tuscon, and takes that one to go 4-0. They do take out OS, barely as the Rodgers come up big. They sweep the Washingtons due to having UW at home to get to 7-0, and into the Top 15. UCLA is the next victim, and suddenly they are 8-0. Stanford is too physical for the undersized Wildcats, and USC is able to sneak a win out in Tuscon due to superior talent at 8-2. Oregon is unsuspecting on a Friday Night, and Arizona is able to pull off a huge upset over Pac-10 leader UO. They close with a blowout over ASU, and they go to the Rose Bowl.

Arizona Worst Case: The warning signs are there against Toledo, but they still start 2-0. Iowa smacks them in the mouth, and Cal responds with a Vereen huge day to bring them to 2-2. OS is able to run Jacquizz down UA’s throat, and now the preseason hyped Wildcats are 2-3. They sneak a win past WSU, but Washington’s duo of Polk and Locker is too much for UA, and they get back below .500. UCLA has just enough to beat Arizona, and Stanford and USC respond with blowout wins. Oregon follows suit, and ASU wins the rivalry to establish state supremacy. 3-9 for the hugely disappointing Wildcats.

Arizona Prediction: Arizona beats Toldeo and Citadel in predictable fashion. But the hard-nosed Hawkeyes have the running game to exploit the weak front 7, and the UA offense just can’t outscore them. Then Cal finally shakes their Tuscon curse, and beats Arizona behind Vereen and the Cal O-Line exploting a new linebacker corp. Arizona cannot stop Jacquizz or James, and Nic Grigsby can’t run for quite enough to pull off the W. Arizona responds with a sweep of the Washingtons, with an easy win over WSU and then a squeaker against Washington that has a toss-up feel. With a rocking Rose Bowl and a bad UA defense is a perfect storm for the Bruins, as their physical run game plows over the Wildcats. Arizona responds with a win over Stanford, with Foles passing over a so-so Furd pass D. USC is able to beat the Wildcats to bring them to 5-5. Out of the Pac-10 race, they take on an Oregon team needing a win to clinch a conference title. But Arizona springs a trap, as the Arizona D is sharp and Foles is able to make the passes while Grigsby complements him. UO pulls off the upset. UA closes the year with a win over rival ASU.



Arizona State Best Case (This one=quicker): After opening the year with 2 easy wins, Wisconsin is able to pick up a win in Camp Randall. A close loss at home to Oregon is no big deal; after all, they are #1 in the Pac. A big upset in Corvallis over OS brings hope, and then another road win over Washington brings them to 4-2. Cal stops the string at 2 road wins, but ASU responds with a win over WSU. USC takes out ASU, and Luck is able to pass the Furd pass the Devils. ASU closes the year with a win over UCLA and a huge one over rival Arizona, to bring their record to 7-5. They win their bowl game.

Worst Case: Disaster. They beat PSU (Portland) and NAU, but respond with 5 straight losses before a win over WSU. That’s the last one they get, as they finish the year 3-9. Erickson is fired.

Prediction: Predictable wins over the FCS teams. Predictable losses to Oregon and Wisconsin. A very surprising win against Oregon State was made by Burfict and the linebackers holding Quizz in check. They still fall against Washington, as Locker passes over them. Cal takes out the Sun Devils, and then ASU follows it up with a win over WSU. They lose a tough next 2 (Furd+USC), but do manage a win over UCLA. Sadly, they lose to rival Arizona and finish 5-7.

A look at Kevin Riley, Part 3

Okay, this is probably annoying you all to death, but there’s only 2 more left (this one+part 4). So enjoy it while you can. Anyway, we’ve taken a look at him by reviewing his overall stats, his stats by game, and by how he performed against tough (and weak) defenses. Now we take a look at him by down.


Now my prototypical QB would be efficient on all downs, but you’d probably prefer he be at his best on 2nd or 3rd down because those are the more “important” situations. Now here’s his stats by down. (All stats from cfbstats.com, which is probably the greatest college football stat site around.)

1st down: 81-155, 52.3%, 1,434 yards, 10 TD, 3 INT, 41 plays of 15 yards or more, 16 of 25 or more

The easy stuff: 41% of his attempts were on 1st down, and 39% of his completions were on 1st; his completion percentage drops over 2% on 1st downs. But a little bit over 50% of his yardage came on 1st; and 55% of his TDs came on 1st, compared to 38% of his picks. Yards per attempt: 9.25. That’s great.

2nd down: 73-113, 64.6%, 842 yards, 5 TD, 0 INT, 20 plays of 15 yards or more, 5 of 25 or more

Riley played much better on second down, with a 10% higher completion rate, and a yards per attempt at 7.45, which is interesting considering his completion %. It is right at his normal rate. Only 30% of his attempts were on 2nd, and 35% of his completions. 28% of his TDs came on 2nd, while 0% of his INT came there. With all of his stats above seemingly, we’ll see how it bodes on 3rd down.

3rd down (regardless of situation; all 3rd downs): 54-110, 49.1%, 550 yards, 5 TD, 2 INT, 14 15+, 2 20+

29% of his attempts, 26% of his completions, and only 19% of his yards. He was pretty bad on 3rd’s, but I guess most take a hit due to the pass heavy situations. His YPA was only 5 yards! So Riley pretty much was gahawful on 3rd’s.

Looking at these stats, Riley looks like a very very good QB on 1st and 2nd down, and then like a 3rd stringer on 3rd down. While I haven’t gotten the numbers yet, it would appear that Riley struggles when the pressure is ramped up and is very good when his back isn’t shoved against a wall. This could be a guess, but from the looks of these numbers it’s a conclusion you could draw.

My take on Kevin Riley: Part 2

After taking a statistical look at Riley, now we take a game by game look at him. Here it goes:


Game 1 vs. Maryland: 17-26, 65.4%, 4 TD, 0 INT

Analysis: This is where many people began to believe in Kevin. One of the most impressive quarterback performances since Aaron Rodgers, Riley was nearly perfect against the Terps. Maryland did end up being awful, but still it was a great performance from Riley. Nothing more could be asked from.

Riley was good against Maryland, and not just at handing it off.

Game 2 vs. Eastern Washington: 13-20, 148 yards, 65%, 1 TD, 0 INT

Analysis: This game could be thrown out just based on the competition, but still a very good game from Riley. Completed 65% of his passes again, didn’t play the whole game due to it being Eastern Washington.

"So easy, a caveman could do it!"

Game 3 at Minnesota: 16-25, 252 yards, 64%, 0 TD, 0 INT

Analysis: Again, a great performance from Kevin. Didn’t have to win the game with Best running for 4 TD, so he just completed the great majority of the passes and kept the ball moving.

Other than this, Good Riley!

Game 4 at Oregon: 12-31, 123 yards, 38.7%, 0 TD, 0 INT

Analysis: Let’s never discuss this game. Truly a terrible, no good, awful performance. Low yardage, low completion percentage, low quality.

A familiar sight; Riley pressured, offensive line collapse.

Game 5: vs. USC: 15-40, 199 yards, 37.5%, 0 TD, 1 INT

Analysis: Back to back performances of this quality, as Riley missed wide wide open receivers and threw an interception inside the red zone that helped break the Bears back. Same thing from above goes here.

Painful.

Game 6 at UCLA: 14-23, 205 yards, 60.9%, 3 TD, 0 INT

Analysis: Good Riley came back here. He spent most of the day watching Jahvid Best and Shane Vereen run all over UCLA, but when he did throw he was efficient. Found Marvin Jones several times deep and played perhaps his best game of the year to this date.

Run Kevin Run!

Game 7 vs. Washington State: 12-18, 229 yards, 66.7%, 3 TD, 1 INT

Analysis: Sure, it looks great on the stat sheet, but it was Wazzu. Still, can’t discount his very good numbers even if they were against WSU.

Nice stache.

Game 8 at Arizona State: 27-44, 351 yards, 61.4%, 2 TD, 0 INT

Analysis: This was one of my favorite games of the year. Riley was absolutely terrific, leading the Bears down the field for a game winning drive against a very tough and talented defense. When Best and Vereen were shut down, Riley stepped up and took the slack.

Calm. Cool. Collected.

Game 9 vs. Oregon State: 19-34, 200 yards, 55.9%, 1 TD, 1 INT

Analysis: Awful game. Not from Riley alone, but overall. The offensive line was complete and utter garbage, our running back almost got killed, and our defense was ripped to shreds. The stats look okay, but he did rack up a touchdown in garbage time.

Describes that whole awful game well.

Game 10 vs. Arizona: 13-22, 181 yards, 59.1%, 1 TD, 2 INT

Analysis: An okay game. Shane Vereen and the defense carried the team, but Riley did a serviceable job too. Nothing special, and he did toss the 2 picks, but he did alright.

He's like Vick!

Game 11 at Stanford: 17-31, 235 yards, 54.8%, 1 TD, 1 INT

Analysis: It’s funny; I remember Riley playing a lot better this game, but his stats look mediocre. While Vereen carried the team, Riley was on in the second half and made plays when he had too. I put this in the “Good Riley” category.

The aftermath: shirtless dudes.

Game 12 at Washington: 14-32, 215 yards, 43.8%, 1 TD, 0 INT

Analysis: I missed this game, so I’ll let the stats speak for themselves.

Game 13 vs. Utah: 20-36, 214 yards, 55.6%, 1 TD, 2 INT

Analysis: I missed a large chunk of this game, but looking at the numbers I stick this in “Okay Riley”. Our defense was pretty bad in this one, and Riley put together his prototypical “Okay Riley” showing.

Bleh.

So now we crunch the numbers. Using Phil Steele’s pass defense rankings (which weigh both numbers and strength of competition), here’s how Riley did against the various ranges:

1-10: 20-36, 214 yards, 55.6%, 1 TD, 2 INT. 1 game; Utah.

11-20: 42-84, 550 yards, 50%, 2 TD, 1 INT. 2 games: USC, ASU.

21-30: 12-31, 123 yards, 38.7%, 0 TD, 0 INT. 1 game: Oregon.

31-40: 27-45, 386 yards, 60%, 4 TD, 2 INT. 2 games: Arizona, UCLA

41-50: N/A.

51-60: 16-25, 252 yards, 64%, 0 TD, 0 INT. 1 game: Minnesota

61-70: 19-34, 200 yards, 55.9%, 1 TD, 1 INT. 1 game: OSU.

71-80: N/A.

81-90: N/A

91-100: 48-89, 748 yards, 53.9%, 6 TD, 1 INT. 3 games: Washington, Stanford, Maryland

101-110: 12-18, 229 yards, 66.7%, 3 TD, 1 INT. 1 game: Washington State

111-120: N/A

Overall, there’s not too much to discern from the quality of opponent. While he does do worse against better competition, the difference between 91-100 and 11-20 is not big enough to say, “OMG PLAYING AGAINST GOOD TEAMS RILEY IS AWFUL.” Sure, he is worse, but who gets better against the best secondary’s?

And for our finally stat, here’s the good Riley to Okay Riley to Bad Riley numbers:

Good Riley’s: 6 (Maryland, Minnesota, Eastern Washington, Washington State, Arizona State, UCLA; Stanford not included due to stats)

Okay Riley’s: 3 (Stanford, Arizona, Utah)

Bad Riley’s: 3 (USC, Oregon, Oregon State)

What to discern from these stats: Good Riley was around 50%, a solid or better Riley was around 75% of the time, and awful Riley was around 25% of the time. In order for Riley to have a successful senior season, Bad Riley needs to be eliminated. Good Riley needs to be around for at least 9 games, if not more, and okay Riley (and the okay Riley of Stanford more than Arizona/Utah) needs to be around every time the good one isn’t. A USC or Oregon performance and the season could be a failure after one game.

One stat to close: Nevada Pass Rank: 117, Colorado Pass Rank: 53. Those are the new opponents for this season.

Oh yeah, and if you missed the post before (cause it is the same day and all), it can be found below or here. Go Kevin Riley!

Browner, Kendricks to start at outside linebacker

Kendricks vs. Eastern Washington

Not surprising, but the starters at outside linebacker will be Mychal Kendricks and Keith Browner. Browner, who started against Washington last year, and Kendricks, who played on the inside last year, both have experience from a year ago. However, neither are returning starters. Browner, who is huge at 6-6 250, was part of the debacle at Washington a year ago but does have upside. He’s a pass rusher more than a coverage linebacker, which fits well into new defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast’s scheme. Kendricks is the more talented of the duo, who could be an All-Conference player if he plays up to his talent. Kendricks had 71 tackles last year in 6 starts in last year, and had a huge interception against UCLA. Kendricks is talented in both coverage and rushing. With that, the position battles shrink; one inside linebacker, corner, and one defensive end spot are the only spots left on defense.

Browner

My take on Kevin Riley: Part 1

I’m sure it’s the moment you’ve all been waiting for. Finally I give my take on the much maligned Kevin Riley. I’m sure you’ve all had the urge to call for his benching; heck, I’ve had it too. But here’s my take on Riley.

First, his completion percentage. 54.7% is a mark there’s no defending, but honestly I don’t put too much emphasis on completion percentage. A stat like yards per attempt takes in account all of th incompletions, but also gives credit to a passer who makes more deep plays. Besides, the difference between 54.7% and 58% with the passes he threw is a mere 1 completion per game; that’s no real difference. So I’m not concerned about his completion percentage; it certainly could us an increase and I think it will this season, but it’s not a huge deal.

Next up, his yards per attempt. This is what points to me thinking that there’s hope for Kevin. His yards per attempt are higher than Nick Foles, Jermiah Masoli, Sean Canfield, and Jake Locker. As in, he’s better on his attempts than 50% of the great quartet that went to ESPN as the “top” quarterbacks in the conference. His yards per attempt last year was at 7.46. So basically if you got a run for 3 yards, and you throw the ball twice then you’ll probably get yourself a first down. That’s perfectly fine for a quarterback.

Now, a look at his touchdowns. He threw 18 touchdowns a season ago. The average was 16, so he was slightly above average. Of the Pac-10 QBs, he threw more than ASU’s cluster****, Masoli, Andrew Luck, Kevin Prince, Barkley, and WSU’s QBs. So was better than 3 of the “top” Pac-10ers. 18 is a fine total; over 1 per game is just fine.

Finally, his interceptions, of which he threw 8 of. He only threw more than 1 against Arizona (2) and Utah (2). So even on his awful games, he didn’t give the ball up to the other team. Which is nice, but avoiding those awful games would be better. Notable Pac-10ers that threw more were Foles, Barkely, and Locker, 3 of the “top” Pac-10ers. His interception total is okay; a decrease would be very good.

So looking at the numbers he was actually very solid. Other than completion percentage, he was better than luminaries such as Foles, Barkley, and Locker. Riley may be much better than we give him credit for. And with a look toward 2010, an improved offensive line and improved receivers should only make him better. Go Bears and Go Kevin Riley!

And yeah, there will be a Part Two.

Season Forecast: USC

The first of a 2 part series regarding how the postseason-less Trojans will perform this season. They will be first, primarily because of the fact that there will be no bowls for USC. They still have to be considered one of the best teams in the conference, but one might expect decreased expectations on the team. Here is the best case scenario for the Trojans. Later on in this post will be the worst.


September 2nd at Hawaii: A complete blowout for the Trojans, something along the lines of the 56-3 win against San Jose State last year. This game enables a 13th game for the Trojans.

September 11th vs. Virginia: A repeat of the 2008 game, in which USC crushed the Cavs 52-7. Mark Sanchez helped quell any concerns in the 08 game; can Barkley show he can step up from his so-so performance last year? In this scenario, it happens as Barkley throws 4 TDs and USC rolls.

The one good UVA player in the last 5 years.

September 18th at Minnesota: Minnesota as a pretty good offense, but no defense. The offense of USC puts up 30+, and Minnesota can only muster 10 in another blowout for the Trojans.

Sucks he's in the NFL now.

September 25th at Washington State: Unlike last year, where a decently close game helped bring up the potential of the Trojan empire falling, USC puts together a performance that Coug fans are all too used too from 2008, where they were outscored by 236 in conference play. 56-0 SC.

This picture honestly creeps me out.

October 2nd vs. Washington: A suspect secondary shows signs of life against the Huskies, holding Locker in relative check (Locker still does his damage). The front 7 dominates Polk and the UW offensive line, and the Huskies only put up 20 points. Bradford runs over the UW front 7, and Barkley manages the game effectively in a 31-20 win that exorcises the demons from last year.

None of this this time, fellas.

October 9th at Stanford: “What’s your deal?” USC gets the perfect revenge over last year, as Kiffin does the same to Harbaugh as Harbaugh did to Carroll, going for 2 late in a blowout win. Taylor is no Gerhart, and the 2 missing offensive linemen prove crucial to the loss. Luck shows up like big game Luck. The Stanford defense gets plowed through in a 50 (48+2 point conversion)-13 crusher.

SO AWESOME

October 16th: vs. California: Barkley has his way with a still struggling Cal secondary, but an improve rush defense and special teams unit keeps it from being the blowout it was last year. A late Cal turnover and USC turnover gives the 28-14 final, another triumph for the Trojans to get them to 7-0. They now rank #3 in the latest poll.

Why do I do this to myself?

October 30th vs. Oregon: With a bye to prepare, the Trojans aren’t befuddled by the Duck offense like they were last year. But they do have a solid passer in Nate Costa under center, who is able to do damage to the USC defense, which has been a brick wall all year long. LaMichael James is able to get his yards, and an experienced Oregon defense does just enough. In a 3 OT thriller, James runs it in for the TD and the 2 point conversion. Barkley answers with a touchdown of his own, but Bradford comes up an inch short on the 2 point conversion. It’s labeled “The Game of the Century.” Pollsters respect the Trojans effort, as they only fall to #7.

Just replace Nebraska and Oklahoma with Oregon and USC

November 6th vs. Arizona State: USC responds from their first loss of the year by shellacking the quarterbackless Sun Devils. ASU can’t score a point, and Barkley has a field day against the suspect Sun Devil secondary. Backups play the whole 4th quarter.

This guy's not very good. Honestly. Or at least he wasn't at Michigan.

November 13th at Arizona: Many call for an upset in Tuscon, as the Trojans can’t do this well this late in the season with so few scholarship players and with sanctions on them. Those who call for that are proved wrong, as the Trojans get to quarterback Nick Foles before he can expose the only “weakness” of the USC defense, the secondary. The defensive line records 5.5 sacks, and the linebackers add 1.5 of their own. The front 7 doesn’t allow Grigsby any room, and the Wildcats can’t muster more than 10 points. Bradford runs clear through a front 7 returning 2 starters, and the Trojans roll.

This happens a lot to him against the Trojans, at least in this awful USC winning filled world

November 20th at Oregon State: “Okay,” analysts say. “This where Troy falls.” Given the fact the Beavs seemingly always beat USC, it’s a worthwhile prediction. And for 3 quarters, those analysts seem right. A 14-7 lead led by 2 Rodgers’ touchdowns and the USC offense sucking majorly leads to a deficit that could be more. But Barkley finds Johnson deep. Then he finds Butler for another touchdown. Then Bradford scores a rushing touchdown. A 21-6 run in the 4th gives SC the 28-20 lead and even more respect from the pollsters. Their record runs to 10-1. Notre Dame lurks.

OSU finally loses to USC in Corvallis.

November 27th vs. Notre Dame: For the 3rd straight week, analysts pick against USC. But this time, it’s only Lou Holtz. Everybody else is sold on the Trojans. And they prove it in LA. They run roughshod over their rival, and they just cannot be contained. It’s a statement win, but against a Notre Dame team that will miss a bowl (Yes, it’s that best case for USC).

Sorry, forgot; this never actually happened

December 4th at UCLA: At 5-6, UCLA needs a win to make a bowl. Consider it denied. Prince throws 4 picks, the UCLA running game never gets started, and Bradford runs for 140 yards on UCLA. Lane Kiffin doesn’t throw a run it up touchdown this time, and Slick Rick doesn’t call a timeout. They hand shake at center field, and USC is applauded for their class in going 12-1. The NCAA is vilified for not letting USC go to postseason play.

Postseason: Alabama wins the national title, showing a program can recover from sanctions. USC is #2 in the country. Despite the scholarship reductions, the recruiting class still ranks in the Top 20.

This was painful to write, apart from the Furd and ND predictions. Oh well. Let’s hope this never happens!



In which I tell you the future, here is the second part of this post on how USC’s season could shape out. Coming off a painful best case scenario where I had to write about them winning, now I get to talk about their worst case scenario. Normally, I would give you a short little overview, but I did that already. THE CONTENT:

September 2nd at Hawaii: A blowout is expected. Instead, Hawaii’s pass attack nearly pulls off the upset. With no returning starters in the secondary, the Trojans are ripped to shreds to the tune of 28 points allowed. But the bad Hawaii defense can’t keep up, and a late SC field goal gives them a 31-28 escape.

It's like this guy came back!

September 11th vs. Virginia: Virginia should be outmatched, but somehow they are able to stop the USC offense. They still can’t score, but the game comes down to the wire. Cavaliers just don’t have the horses, and they fall 13-7. An unimpressive 2-0 for the Trojans.

How do you give up a TD to Virginia?

September 18th at Minnesota: Minnesota’s potent passing attack and the 5 returning starters on the offensive line give the Gophers points, and a defense with only 2 returning starters (but both safeties) is able to prevent the big play. Minnesota’s home field advantage plays a part, as a rattled Barkley throws a late pick to sink the Trojans, 27-21.

He held on.

September 25th at Washington State: USC is good enough to win this game, but it comes at a price. Bradford injures his shoulder, and the running game falters. Barkley carries the load in a 27-10 win.

October 2nd vs. Washington: Barkley was hurt coming into last year’s game, and gets hurt…but this time it’s in the actual game. Barkley is hit in the first quarter and doesn’t get up, leading Mitch Mustain to get his chance. He throws 3 picks, and the backups don’t do the job at tailback. Meanwhile, Locker rips up the secondary with little experience from last year. USC falls, 31-13.

Another USC-UW, another upset.

October 9th at Stanford: “What’s your deal?” Part 2 ensues. Stanford simply outphysicals the Trojans, and with the transfer their depth fails them. It doesn’t help that Bradford and Barkley are still out. Stanford rolls, but doesn’t score as many points as they did last year. 45-17 is the embarrassing result. 3-3 is a clear sign that this isn’t the same USC we remember.

This hurts me just as much as it hurts you, USC fans.

October 16th: vs. California: Another game, another loss. Cal’s defense remembers last year’s embarrassment, and avenges it with a dominating performance. Kevin Riley redeems himself from last year, and the wounded Trojans just quit late. Lane Kiffin’s season starts 3-4 and loses 17-3 to the Golden Bears.

I like this.

October 30th vs. Oregon: The 3-4 Trojans are now fully healthy, with a bye week to heal up. For a quarter, it looks like this team is ready to turn it around. USC comes out inspired at home, and takes a 10-0 lead before 15 minutes is up. But to start the second, the Trojans muff a punt and Oregon recovers it and runs it for a touchdown. A interception and run back brings it to 14-10, and the Ducks don’t look back onroute to a 34-16 victory. 3-5 is the new mark for USC.

LOL.

November 6th vs. Arizona State: This USC team is still very talented. And they show it against the Sun Devils. Despite Bradford being shut down by Burfict and the ASU defense, Barkley does just enough to get points. The ASU offense is still awful, and USC escapes 17-6.


November 13th at Arizona: USC still has life. Sure, they do have an awful 4-5 record, but they are still a team loaded with touted recruits. And for one Saturday, Barkley looks like Carson Palmer. Bradford looks like Lendale White, and CJ Gable does a passable Reggie Bush. It is against a porous rush defense, but USC still gets a much needed W, 31-24.

November 20th at Oregon State: It’s the Rodgers’ show. Jacquizz rushes for 160, James receives for 50, and the Beavers run wild on the Trojans. Another date in Corvallis, another Trojan defeat. 31-21 is the final.

November 27th vs. Notre Dame: Fighting Irish haven’t shown much fight all year, and it shows. Sure, Dayne Crist can pass, but the run game never gets untracked. It doesn’t help that this is still a defense that is awful. Sure, it’s a rivalry between two struggling team, but USC gets the better of Notre Dame 16-10. Trojans are now a bowl-eligible 6-6, if they were actually able to make one.

December 4th at UCLA: UCLA has had a breakthrough season. They’re not Rose Bowl bound, but they’re in the upper echelon. And UCLA shows it against the 3-5 Pac-10 play Trojans, destroying them in front of the LA crowd. Many recruits are in attendance, and UCLA gets a flurry of commits. Meanwhile, USC can’t even fill the limited scholarships they have. UCLA takes control of LA, 35-10.

Postseason: As mentioned earlier, USC can’t fill their limited allotment of schollies. Bowl ban is extended for yet another year.

This was so much fun.

Daniel Lasco verbals to Cal; Welcome to Cal Daniel!

Daniel Lasco, a 6-1 tailback from Woodlands, Texas, has given Cal a verbal commitment to play football for the Bears. Lasco is a 4 star recruit according to Rivals.com, Espn.com, and Scout.com. Let’s take a look at what the sites are saying about him.


Scout.com had this to say about his strengths and weaknesses. Strengths: “Acceleration, Balance, Vision.” Weaknesses: “Power, Size.” Here’s some snippets from his scouting report: “A very smoothe runner, he makes it look effortless… His size does not make him strong between the tackles, but his quickness allows him to get yards between the tackles…”

Rivals.com had this to say about his tools: “Speed Blue Chip. Size, Strength, Agility, Elusiveness Division I player.” The scouts there said that he needs to add muscle and change directions more efficiently, while noting that he is very fast (a 4.4 40) and that he can also shift to safety or receiver. He’s in Rivals’ top 250 for the class of 2011.

Finally, Espn.com. They also mention his ability to shift to other positions, like safety and receiver. They also mention his great speed and acceleration. It is behind a pay wall, so I don’t feel it appropriate to quote it.

I’ll take a look at some of his tape later on, but for now here’s just a quick overview at what the sites are saying about Daniel. Welcome!

Fall Camp started yesterday; what to watch for on defense

Following up on yesterday’s post, here’s what to look for on the defensive side of the ball this fall camp. Here’s the position by position look on defense. Here’s the link to the offensive post: http://since59.blogspot.com/2010/08/fall-camp-starts-today-what-to-watch.html


Defensive Line: Cameron Jordan is a lock on one side as defensive end; the only question for him is if he can channel his immense talent into a breakthrough season. On the other side there will be a competition; it’d appear that Trevor Guyton and Ernest Owusu would be the two competing. Gabe King will be in the mix, but he’s a freshman. There are more talented youngsters in the wings. In the middle, Derrick Hill would appear to be the starter after starting most of last year. Kendrick Payne is pushing him though, and it’ll be interesting to see who is starting verse UC Davis when the time is there.

Hopefully we'll see this a lot more in 2010.

Outside Linebackers: My guess is that Mychal Kendricks will slide over to the edge; he certainly has the skill and ILB has plenty of depth. Outside needs immediate help, and he fits the build. On the other end, it’s a mess. Will it be Ryan Davis? Keith Browner? Jarred Price? Jerome Meadows? There’s a lot of questions, and not very many answers. This is priority #1 to be resolved.

The whole 10 men on defense works like a charm here.

Inside Linebackers: DJ Holt and Mike Mohamed have to be considered the starters on the inside, considering both of them started last year a bit. Kendricks could play here technically, as it is his position. Behind him could be some freshman, and JP Hurrell and Charles Johnson.

Epic.

Cornerbacks: More uncertainty. I’d guess that the starting 2 are Josh Hill (who started 5 last year) and Darian Hagan (who started 13 as a sophomore and 4 last year). That is, assuming Hagan doesn’t miss time with academic problems or injuries. Bryant Nnabuife is the discussion as a senior, and he started 4 last year. Marc Anthony got 6 games of experience last year, and Steve Williams has been tabbed as a breakout player by both Tedford and Mike Mohamed. He’s a redshirt freshman.

None of this in 2010,  OK Hagan?

Safeties: Alas, a little less uncertainty! Chris Conte and Sean Cattouse are penciled in as the two starters. Cattouse is a very solid player in coverage and is the anchor of the secondary. Conte is a little suspect, but he has all the tools to succeed along with the experience. We shall see if DJ Campbell or true freshman Keenan Allen can push him. Allen is the gem of the highly touted recruiting class.

Go Conte!

There you go. Keep your eyes on these stories on both sides of the ball during fall camp!

Fall Camp starts today: What to watch for on offense?

Sorry about the lack of writing recently, I’ve had a personal problem. I should be back up and running though. As you probably know, fall camp starts today and the football season will soon follow it. Here’s a position by position look on what to look for, offensively:


Quarterback: Kevin Riley’s development could hold the key to the year. If he has a breakout year, the sky is the limit. Accuracy and his reads will be the main things for him to improve upon. Brock Mansion and Beau Sweeney will jostle for the #2 job in camp as well. Whoever wins has an instant leg-up in replacing Riley next season.

Running Back: Vereen is entrenched as starter; the only real intrigue is how he recovers from knee surgery. However, Covaughn DeBoskie, Dasarte Yarnway, and Isi Sofele are all in the mix to spell him. DeBoskie has to be the favorite, although Sofele does present a nice speedy option and Yarnway is a good downhill runner. DeBoskie is more of a balanced runner.

Receivers: Jones and Ross are pretty well set as the starting 2; Lagemann can’t say he’s safe in the slot but he’s close. Keenan Allen, Tevin Carter, and Coleman Edmond all present incoming options that could play a part. Michael Calvin seems to have been around forever, but he’s still a junior and still has upside. Anthony Miller is still the starter and looks to prove himself as one of the top tight ends. Spencer Ladner is a better blocker, while Jarrett Sparks is a better threat in the passing game. They will compete for the second tight end.

Offensive Line: Competitions almost everywhere. What we do know: Matt Summers-Gavin is the left tackle, and Mitchell Schwartz will likely bookend him. Justin Cheadle does have a nasty talent of committing bad penalties, but he’s still the probably right guard. Chris Guarnero will start somewhere. The competition is between Brian Schwenke and Mark Brazinski; Brazinski a redshirt freshman center and Schwenke a relatively experienced junior guard. They will duke it out. I’d take Schwenke to win, with him being the LG and Guarnero being the center. Guarnero will take the LG if Brazinski plays the center spot.

Part 2 tomorrow.

The Story of Almost the Greatest Upset in College Football History

The year is 1915. Cal’s football program is returning after a stint with only rugby. Arch-rival Stanford was sticking with rugby. The new arch-rival was the Huskies of Washington, who Cal would match up with twice in the coming season. James Schaeffer, the rugby coach who knew nothing about the sport (neither did his players). To learn more about the game, he went on a nationwide tour to find more.


His first stop was funnily enough to Washington, where Gil Dobie was in the midst of a 63 game winning streak with his club. Dobie wouldn’t lose a single game in his coaching tenure. While Dobie initially laughed at his request, James convinced him to coach him up on the fundamentals on the game. He told him to head to the Midwest, where he could learn more. He would meet a coach named Andy Smith there, and appoint him as his successor in a year. But enough about that.

The Bears would face the Huskies in back to back games; first, they would play in Berkeley and then in Washington. The Berkeley game was an absolute shellacking; Dobie and his Huskies poured it on onroute to a 72-0 slaughter. And now the Bears had to head to Montlake. It wasn’t a question of if they lost, but by how much.

But a strange thing happened on the way. The attendance was down, because the 72-0 game in the previous game had dampened all hope of a close game. The Huskies, big headed after the 72-0 win, would be held scoreless for the entire first half. A Roy Sharp pass to Rudy Gianelli gave Cal a 7-0 lead; strange, considering how sparse passing was in 1915. Suddenly, 72-0 was a distant memory. Surviving was the only hope for the Huskies. And they would survive, if just barely. A late drive by the Huskies would give them the 13-7 final, but they were one turnover on the last drive- one stop away from losing to a team that was in its first year of football. A team that had lost to 72-0 the previous week. It should be a game to be remembered even today, but sadly it is little known and lost to history.

The 1915 California Golden Bears almost pulled off the biggest upset in college football history. Sadly they lost, but it is still a performance to be remembered today. Go Bears!

Source:

Golden Bears: A Celebration of Cal Football's Triumphs, Heartbreaks, Last-Second Miracles, Legendary Blunders and the Extraordinary People Who Made It All Possible by Ron Fimrite

4-3 nixed

My post a couple of days ago is now officially ruled out, as during media days he said that Cal is a 3-4 team and not a 4-3 team. For much better coverage, go to California Golden Blogs and Conquest Chronicles, who attended the event and actually watched it. I just watched the Cal stuff. Go Bears!

Should Cal switch to a 4-3 this year from the 3-4?

The Chris Martin transfer pits this into further spotlight, but I’ve been thinking this for a while; should Cal revert back to a more traditional 4-3 from the 3-4 they currently run? Just looking at the personal we have, it would appear that a 4-3 might be looking better than a 3-4, especially considering the lack of rush linebackers we have now and potentially in the future.


For now, here’s the projected depth chart in our 3-4:

DE Cameron Jordan

NT Derrick Hill

DE Trevor Guyton

OLB Keith Browner

ILB Mike Mohamed

ILB DJ Holt

OLB Mychal Kendericks

Now the 4-3:

DE Cameron Jordan

DT Derrick Hill

DT Kendrick Payne

DE Trevor Guyton

OLB DJ Holt

ILB Mike Mohamed

OLB Mychal Kendricks

Now, note that the 4-3 look is pure speculation; I have no clue if Holt can play outside, but he seems to have body, or at least that of someone who could handle the position. If Holt can play the outside, or if you can work those 3 in a rotation (Holt, Mohamed, and Kendricks); then I believe that that unit is the better one. Payne and Hill are both competing for the starting defensive tackle job this year; Hill starting last year and Payne challenging him currently. Getting those two on the field, as well as getting rid of the uncertainty at rush linebacker, would be a very solid move. Pendergast, from what I’ve heard, has some experience running a 4-3. Why not try and get the best players on the field, instead of sticking with one scheme for the sake of running the scheme? In my opinion, and I’m sure many would agree, the 4-3 look has better personal than the 3-4. Whether it would play better on the field is a question; but why not give it a shot? Not that this a recommendation, but I’m sure it’d be an interesting thought to get the best talent out.

Hopefully the 3-4 we’re running works out great, but the 4-3 could be a look they switch to if the defense bombs. Go Bears!

A look at UC Davis

A look at UC Davis


As the day of the game gets closer, we’ll take a look at this game much closer. For now, here’s a early preview of the opener against UC Davis.



NCAA Football 11 Dynasty Result: 71-7 Cal. Okay, it wasn’t UC Davis, but it was FCS West. Vereen was player of the game with 100+ rushing yards and 3 TD. Anger didn’t have to punt all day. But UC Davis did score, so they got that going for them.



Quarterback: Last year’s starter Greg Denham is gone, quitting football. 3 QBs are competing: redshirt freshman Austin Heyworth, sophomore Sean Maraz, and freshman Randy Wright. Only Maraz has thrown a pass. Maraz did throw a touchdown, and did get 12 carries. He’s mobile, and should win the job.



Running Back: The Aggies won’t run much, but when they do they’ll hand to junior Joe Trombetta and junior Josh Reese. Trombetta racked up 395 yards and a 3.3 average while Reese gained 382 yards on a 5.5 average. Trombetta is a far more consistent and steady runner, while Reese is a big play guy. Look for Reese to get more carries and run pretty well.



Wide Receivers/Tight Ends: With the 2 top receivers graduating, the load now falls on senior Sean Creadick. After a mild impact his sophomore year, he burst out with 466 receiving yards last year. He scored 5 touchdowns. The tight end, Dean Rogers, is the next leading returner besides a running back. He caught 29 balls for 326 yards in his junior season, and is now back for more. He was All-Conference his sophomore year. After that is a load of inexperience and low numbers, so we may not know much about UC Davis’ receiving corps leading up to the game.

Offensive Line: Since offensive line play is very hard to judge without ever watching a team play, here’s what I could scrounge. I did the best of what I could; of the lineman listed in the media guide with experience in the past, I count 4, including one who was All-Conference in the past. Note the media guide is from the previous season, so there could be no up and comers. UC Davis’ athletic site is pretty awful. Moving on. Last year’s unit was subpar, only paving the way for 3.1 yards per rush. They did only give up 20 sacks per game. An average unit, we’ll call it.

Defensive Line: The defensive ends are Eric Sobotka and Tommy Grillo. They combined for 6.5 TFL and 4.5 sacks, Sobtoka accounting for most of them. Sobotka is a senior and Grillo is a junior. The defensive tackles are junior Jacob Maxson and sophomore Andrew Benjamin. They combined for 11 TFL and 3.5 sacks, Maxson accounting for all of the sacks. Maxson is a very good player, but the supporting cast lags behind.

Linebackers: The only returning starter is Dozie Amajoyi, who got 50 tackles last year. Junior Brock Butler finished right behind him in tackling with 36 tackles and 3.5 TFL; only .5 sacks for him. Marshall Congdon also had 33 tackles, and 3 TFL. Those are the 3 starters. They only combined for 2.5 sacks; don’t look for much blitzing from these guys. A pretty below average unit.



Defensive Backs: The 2 starting corners from last year graduated, so Jonathan Calhoun and Fred Rice would appear to be the starters, at least from returning experience. Calhoun recorded 10 tackles and 1 interception, while Rice only had 7 tackles on the year. Senior Danny Hart, a Sacramento State transfer (funny- aren’t they rivals?) was 2nd in the team with 53 tackles and recovered 3 fumbles. He’s the leader of the defense. The other safety should be Kevyn Lewis, who tackled 30 times last year with 5 TFL and 2 sacks. Lewis is apparently sent on blitzes and is strong in run support. The cornerbacks could absolutely be blasted in this one, but the safeties are quite good.

Overall, it should be what it was scheduled for: a destruction. Still, it’ll be fun to see another California team, and to of course pick up a victory.

A look at the history of 5 star recruits in the Tedford era

With Martin departing, the unfulfilled promise of a 5 star recruit bites the Bears. It prompted me to look back at previous 5 stars to see what Martin could have been.


2002: No 5 stars

2003: No 5 stars

2004: No 5 stars

2005: WR DeSean Jackson: A true program changer. Jackson, while he had his faults, made his impact on the Bears and helped make Cal a more national brand. A huge impact on Cal. Jackson is one of the best players of the decade and worthy of a 5 star rating.

D-JAX!

2006: No 5 stars

2007: No 5 stars

2008: No 5 stars

2009: No 5 stars

2010: Keenan Allen: WR/S, has yet to play a game

Chris Martin: DE/OLB, transferred before he touched the field.



There’s a lot fewer 5 star recruits then I thought Tedford had landed. Apparently, I was mistaken. Guys like Marshawn Lynch and Jahvid Best were borderline, but so were guys like Joe Ayoob. But, 5 star recruits have a 100% success rating before this season. Keenan Allen is a sure star (just kidding; hopefully he will be!). Go Bears!

Chris Martin gone from Cal

The news coming out today is that freshman linebacker Chris Martin is transferring from Cal. Martin, one of the jewels of the recruiting class, was expected to make an immediate impact as a hybrid DE/OLB. Martin was rated the #2 defensive end, #18 player nationally, and the #1 player in the state of Colorado. Now he’s taking his potential impact elsewhere; we don’t know where yet, but we know it won’t be in a Golden Bear uniform.


For what it’s worth, Martin showed only class when he spoke regarding his decision, saying that it didn’t have anything to do with Cal but instead with him saying, ““Rather, I feel like for me to focus and truly reach my potential I need to leave many of the distractions I have here at home in the Bay Area. I need to venture away from home and start my college career somewhere else where I don’t have those distractions.” Tedford also referenced “distractions,” saying that "I understand his concern with the continued outside distractions he’s facing, and I support Chris and his decision to transfer. I wish him and his family all the best.”His father also spoke regarding these distractions, adding, "I'll let Chris do the talking in his situation but Chris and the family thought that the distractions he left the bay area for in high school wouldn't be a problem but it became apparent after he came back that that wasn't the case and that it would likely only become more of an issue later so best to make the decision now.”

It’s odd how the reason he left his Bay Area high school, or at least the official one, was that he had “bad blood” with his high school coach. There’s no reason for that to intercede while he is at Cal, so all that we have is speculation. We shall see if more details come out.

Whatever the reasoning is, we wish Martin the best of luck wherever his college destination is, as long as it’s far, far away from Berkeley. The young man has some great potential and I would’ve loved to see him flourish in the Cal uniform. It’s disappointing, but we still would like to see Martin succeed. Go Bears!

NCAA Football 11 Review

Since I’m a nerdy blogger who lives in my mother’s basement, it figures I’d be playing the new NCAA Football game. I buy it every year, and I feel this is the best version yet on the new systems. Anyway, here’s my review:


Presentation:

Recently, NCAA Football has received heat for their awful presentation of their game. The commentating was awful, there was no atmosphere, a Sun Belt game felt the same as a National Title game, and the overlays were awful. Some of those flaws were fixed in this edition. ESPN presentation was added, and several unique entrances were added for different teams. There’s a sense of importance when a big rivalry game is going, like Cal-Stanford. The commentating is still a bit stale, there’s only a few entrances, the crowd is nearly quiet during games, and there aren’t very many stat overlays, but overall the presentation is improved. It’s good, but room for improvement.

Offense:

Offense has to be viewed in twofold: passing and rushing. The rushing game is pure awesome; the passing game is okay. The rushing game is executed well in three ways: the autoturbo added to the game, the camera angle, and the new locomotion addition. With those additions, you’re more concerned about hitting the hole (and you can actually see them) then mashing a turbo button . The new locomotion makes the running styles more realistic looking, as well as making the tackles look far better. The new gang tackling system also contributes to that. I’m not a big fan of the passing this year though. There’s far too many deflections by the defensive line and linebackers that aren’t very realistic, and the man coverage by the CPU is a little too high-powered. However, the pocket system is great and the days of scrambling around like Mike Vick are over. Overall, offense is much improved this year in realism and I love the new rushing game.

Defense:

I’ve always hated defense in NCAAs. It was always impossible, and CPU QB’s would make impossible throws normal. This year, that changes. Gone are the days of a 42-35 shootout every game. While it still might happen, defense is much improve. Playing on default All-American, I frequently hold the CPU to the 10-21 range. This, combined with the offense being toned down, leads to more 13-10 and 17-7 games that are more realistic. Like real life, you need to make adjustments in order to stop the other time. Looking at the formation the opposition is running and switching from zone to man or vice versa can be the difference between stopping an offense or getting crushed. Man defense is now an option, unlike last year’s where man D would lead to you getting burned time and time again. The rush defense is a little overpowered on the user’s side, but you still see some realistic numbers. Tackling can be shoddy though. Defense this year is much improved, compared to last year’s struggles.

Overview:

This year’s NCAA is the best football game I’ve played in a long time. Realism is in nearly every facet of the game, and the new rushing game system is a great feature. While I’m always hyped for a new game, I believe this is the real deal. I suggest buying this game if you’re a college football fan looking for your video game fix.