How is Cal doing at this stage in the season?

Does Mike Montgomery have the Bears in a spot where they want to be?

At the time, California is 6-5. Using only KenPom ratings, they’re ranked as the #75 team in the country. Assuming a victory over Hartford, the Bears would be 7-5 going into Pac-10 conference play. His ranking project them to go 7-11 in Pac-10 play, leaving them at 14-16. Ignoring the projections; has this been a successful non-conference season for Cal?


First, the expected: if one had to forecast the W-L of Cal in the non-conference, you’d probably put victories over CSU Northridge, UC Davis, and Cal Poly in pen. Question mark games would be New Mexico, Southern Mississippi, San Diego State, and Iowa State. Expected losses would be Temple and Kansas. Notre Dame would probably also in the expected loss category, while Boston College probably be there too. Looking at that, you’d expect a record around 5-6.

But looking at the numbers, you have to factor in that the team’s they beat are better than expected. Iowa State, SDSU, New Mexico, and even Southern Miss are surprises in the way they’ve played recently. The Golden Bears have quality wins over Temple, New Mexico, and Iowa State. The only “bad” loss is Southern Miss, who’s actually having a fine year at 9-2. 3 good wins, 0 bad losses? It’s not great, but considering the youth we have it’s definitely what we’re looking for.

An outright success this start is not, but it is definitely not a failure. A 10 win conference season and 2 conference tourney wins would have the Bears at 19 wins, which would be a huge success. When it’s all said and done, Mike Montgomery has done a fine job and the Bears are right where they want to be.