A quick look at Hartford, the Tuesday opponent for the Bears

Hartford is pretty bad. They are 2-8 against a weak schedule, and ranked 275th in the KenPom ratings.


Joe Zeglinski will run the point, and he has an assist rate in the Top 500 in the country. The Bears have two in the Top 150, so it’s not as if that’s an overly impressive stat for Zeglinski. Morgan Sabia is a 6-8 senior who will man the point. He blocks shots and plays good defense while shooting 55% from the field. Milton Burton and Anthony Minor also man the guard/forward spots, while Genesis Maciel complements Sabia in the lineup.

Say one thing for this team: they’re experienced, and they don’t lose by all that much. While all the team’s they’ve lost to our bad (expect Florida State), they’ve been in every game they’ve played (except FSU). Considering the Bears have had problems putting away any team this year, including the Cal Polys and UC Davis’ of the world, this could spell a close game in Berkeley.

While there is little chance of the Bears losing (3% chance of losing), one has to wonder if the Bears will find themselves in a battle. Hartford, like us, plays awful offense and better defense (Hartford is nowhere near Cal in defense, though). It could be like the 51-41 affair we found ourselves in against Cal Poly.

How is Cal doing at this stage in the season?

Does Mike Montgomery have the Bears in a spot where they want to be?

At the time, California is 6-5. Using only KenPom ratings, they’re ranked as the #75 team in the country. Assuming a victory over Hartford, the Bears would be 7-5 going into Pac-10 conference play. His ranking project them to go 7-11 in Pac-10 play, leaving them at 14-16. Ignoring the projections; has this been a successful non-conference season for Cal?


First, the expected: if one had to forecast the W-L of Cal in the non-conference, you’d probably put victories over CSU Northridge, UC Davis, and Cal Poly in pen. Question mark games would be New Mexico, Southern Mississippi, San Diego State, and Iowa State. Expected losses would be Temple and Kansas. Notre Dame would probably also in the expected loss category, while Boston College probably be there too. Looking at that, you’d expect a record around 5-6.

But looking at the numbers, you have to factor in that the team’s they beat are better than expected. Iowa State, SDSU, New Mexico, and even Southern Miss are surprises in the way they’ve played recently. The Golden Bears have quality wins over Temple, New Mexico, and Iowa State. The only “bad” loss is Southern Miss, who’s actually having a fine year at 9-2. 3 good wins, 0 bad losses? It’s not great, but considering the youth we have it’s definitely what we’re looking for.

An outright success this start is not, but it is definitely not a failure. A 10 win conference season and 2 conference tourney wins would have the Bears at 19 wins, which would be a huge success. When it’s all said and done, Mike Montgomery has done a fine job and the Bears are right where they want to be.