Final Preview: How we match up, Prediction, how to beat the press

The final mega post! After two posts combining for more than 2,000 words, we are onto the final one. The 3 things we will take a look at our how we match up, my prediction, and how we can beat the Louisville press.




First, we start with how we match up with the Cardinals. Where we excel is almost completely on the perimeter: most of our points come from jumpers or from dribble drives. Looking at some stats I accumulated for the defensive preview, it seems that the Bears fit the mold for what can hurt the Cardinals. Pure shooters like Hansbrough from ND (Theo is way better), tough physical shooting guards like Austin Freeman, Scoop Jardine, or Scottie Reynolds hurt them (like Christopher), and even solid point guards can beat them (Randle should beat Tory Jackson’s 19; Randle is far better then Tory). On the big guy level, looking at the previous match-ups it appears Boykin should have some impact on the defensive end. Overall, it would seem that if we can beat the press consistently than we can beat the Louisville defense.



But how does Louisville match up with us? First, we start with the Bears defensive weaknesses. Our issues are a lack of forced turnovers, a lack of blocks and steals, and our so-so 2 point defense. We actually prevent offensive rebounds at a decent rate. Louisville’s weaknesses don’t stem from turnovers, so that’s good. Unfortunately, the Cardinals are great at making 2’s, so that’s a problem. Luckily, Louisville likes to jack up quite a few 3’s, and our solid defense there combined with their merely okay shooting should combine for poor shooting. A decent matchup, but the Cardinals appear to have an edge.



We move on to how the Bears match up with the press. I don’t believe we’ve played a press team all year (I could be mistaken), so it will be a new experience. For a press to succeed, a pressing team will try to accomplish 3 things: force bad shots, and force turnovers off passing or dribbling. Forcing bad shots is something Cal tends to avoid; while Jamal Boykin and others can take some ill-advised shots, they generally steer clear and get solid make able shots. Turnovers are something we typically avoid, but against a press who knows? We’ve all seen Jerome Randle struggle when being pressured by a good, stronger, and bigger defender. See the Washington games. In my opinion, Randle vs. Edgar Sosa will be the match-up that decides this one. If Randle can beat the press and avoid turnovers, then the press is all but for naught. But let’s assume Randle can only beat it occasionally by himself, and needs help. Who ball handles then? Christopher and Robertson generally have troubles handling it, and Gutierrez still is a bit of a bench guy that doesn’t have a great handle. The key will be ball movement then. Give and go’s, swinging the ball around, and the like will decide if Cal beats press. I think we should be able to keep our turnovers in a reasonable range and not cost us the game.



Prediction: 69-65 Cal. Cal does just enough to beat the press while Samuels gives us problems. The Big 3 in the backcourt does just enough to pull out the W.