Duke-Cal Preview

The #1 seed. The #1 most hated team in America. The Duke Blue Devils. Our Cal Bears have a chance to take on the vaunted Blue Devils on Sunday, a chance to advance to the Sweet 16.




Duke’s offense is incredibly efficient, ranking #2 in the country. They play at a rather slow tempo, ranking below average for the NCAA. This might bode well for our tired legs, and that we don’t go up-tempo all the time. They aren’t great at Effective Field Goal% (92nd in the country), but that is still above average. They also don’t get to the free throw line much, which could help us avoid foul trouble. What they do well is avoid turnovers (13th best in the country) and grab offensive boards (9th in the country). The offensive board could be a problem with us, as we don’t have the great rebounding bigs. The Blue Devils can shoot the 3 (38.4%), but they struggle from inside the arc (47.1%; 201st in the country). Now, onto the scorers. Duke relies on 3 players heavily; Kyle Singler, Jon Scheyer, and Nolan Smith combine for 53 points per game. Now other player averages 5 per game. We start with Scheyer, Duke’s unconventional point guard. At 6-5 and not a great ballhandler, Scheyer doesn’t fit the mold. What he does is minimize turnovers, find open teammates, and score some points too. He shoots 40% on the season and 39% from 3. T hat combined with great free throw shooting leads him to average 18.4 points per game, and 4.9 assists. He’s ranked 16th in Offensive Efficiency. Nolan Smith is a far different player from Scheyer. Smith, a 6-2 junior guard, seems to be more of a traditional point. However, he plays shooting guard and is a very tough guard. Smith is great at penetrating to the lane and drawing fouls and/or getting lay-ups. He also can shoot from 3, making 38% of his attempts. Smith is also an efficient player that makes the most of his attempts and doesn’t turn it over much. Finally, Kyle Singler is the 3rd offensive threat, averaging 17.7 points, 7 rebounds, and 2.3 assists per game. Singler is an inside-outside threat, able to knock down a mid-range jumper while still being able to post up. He’s ranked 166th in Offensive Efficiency. Finally, we move to Brian Zoubek, a 7-1 senior center. Zoubek is the best in the country at rebounding misses, according to KenPom. Despite that stat, he only averages 5.3 points, but he does get 7.2 rebounds a game. He could present problems on the inside. Other notables include: F/C Miles Plumlee (5.4 points, 5 rebounds), F Lance Thomas (4.9 points, 4.7 rebounds), G Andre Dawkins (4.9 points), and F/C Mason Plumlee (4 points, 3.3 rebounds).



Defensively, the Devils run a man to man. They like to pressure the ball and force turnovers (21.9 per game). While they do try to force turnovers, they still do a great job of preventing misses; they are 9th best in the country in Defensive Effective Field Goal % (43.6%). They are best in the country at defending the 3 (27.9%) but still keep solid defense on 2’s (44.2%, good for 39th in the nation). They don’t block many shots.



Next, we move on to how we match up. Here’s who will (likely) be guarding whom on the night.

Scheyer vs. Gutierrez

Smith vs. Randle

Thomas vs. Christopher

Singler vs. Robertson

Zoubek vs. Boykin



Now, we are far worse on the inside. Robertson can guard the post a little, but Singler will be able to get his points. Christopher, whether he’s guarded by Thomas or Scheyer, has the quickness advantage and needs to drive to the lane. Randle won’t be able to keep up with Smith; what he needs to do is rely on his help to stop him. Boykin will have a tough time with Zoubek; Zoubek has the height and weight advantage. The mismatches they can exploit are Zoubek, Singler, Smith, and maybe Thomas(even though he won’t do much with the mismatch). The ones we can exploit are Christopher, Robertson, and maybe Boykin (Zoubek doesn’t get out much on mid-range jumpshots).



What the Bears need to do to win:

1. Get out on the 3 point shooters, no matter what. Duke will nail any open 3 you give them, as they’ve shown. If we force them to drive and take 2’s, their effectiveness decreases rapidly.

2. Get Patrick Christopher to take 2’s. While Christopher can nail the open 3, he needs to focus on getting high-quality shots. He can get past his man, whoever that may be, and get to the lane. If he can do that, then it relieves the load on Randle’s shoulders.

3. Keep Brian Zoubek and the Plumlee’s from the offensive glass. We simply cannot afford to give them extra chances; they’re too efficient not to convert. The key is to hold them to 1 shot every possession.



Prediction: 74-68 Duke. The Bears give Duke a scare, but their lack of height and depth costs them in the end.