Quality, and the lack of it in College Hoops right now

The expansion to 68 in the NCAA Tournament probably could not have happened at a worse time. Many are noting the lack of quality teams in the NCAA this year. Are they correct in this take, or is a bunch of lies?


First off, I understand the effect schedule has on seeding. A 20 win major-conference team is in the NCAAs 9 times out of 10, while a mid-major with “only” 20 will have their hopes set on the NIT. I understand this.

The 50th best team in the nation, according to KenPom, are the USC Trojans. Their overall record sits at 12-11. They have an offensive efficiency rating of 107.6, and a defense of 93.1. The nation’s average is 101.3, so they are above average in both categories. Being the 50th team probably puts USC in the discussion for the tourney at the very least.

St. John’s went 17-16 last year, in the toughest conference in the nation, the Big East. The Red Storm were ranked 67th in the country. They finished 17-16. In an average setting of 100.8, their offensive was rated at 106.2 and their defense was 92.8. So basically, their defenses were virtually identical based on seasonal, and USC has a slight advantage. St. John’s had a tougher schedule. Both have 2 Top-40 wins, although USC has done it at a better per game clip.

Central Florida is ranked 92nd, despite being only 14-7, with a mere 102.3 OE and a 94.5 DE. Their schedule is ranked 192nd in the nation. You know who’s probably just as good? Last year’s 117th, William and Mary, who has a similar winning style (W&M was 22-11). W&M played a tougher schedule and had a 107.6 OE, but a 101.4 DE. Similar? Yes. UCF is clearly better, but not by as much as you might think. W&M wasn’t given any consideration last year, while UCF’s been in the Top 25 and clearly has an at-large case going for them.

The point? It’s not going to take a lot to get to the tourney this year. Teams like USC, who would be dismissed in a normal year, are in right now. If a Pac-10 team like Cal can get to around 19 wins, which normally is unimpressive and especially in a down year, they are in serious talks for the tourney. Not saying they can do it, but beating both the Oregons (2 wins), beating the Furd (3), and taking 2 from the UWs and the LA schools (5) and the Bears would have 18. Win 1 Pac-10 tournament game, and Cal would be at that 19 point.

Would that get them in? Probably not. But with a weak climate in college hoops right now, it’s anybody’s ball game. A team with 11 wins and in a power conference can get into an at-large bid at this point, if they play well. I don’t think you can count out a team in the Top 100 right now, although a team like Georgia Tech or Indiana does skew the system a bit. Both are under .500, but who knows at this point?

College basketball is pretty darn weak in terms of at-large candidates. What does it mean? Cal has a chance to sneak in, as do any number of other teams. Don’t write off anybody because they don’t “look” like a tourney team. Based on “looks”, you miss the fact there aren’t 68 “worthy” teams out there. And for anyone who saw Cal lose 80-64 last year to Oregon State, they know looks don’t tell the story. Go Bears!