Screw this best case/worst case crap. Super quick best/worst.
Oregon Best: 12-0. A perfect season and a berth into the national championship. This team has that kind of potential in my mind.
Oregon Worst: 7-5. They could crash and burn depending on the QB.
Oregon Prediction: Easy win over New Mexico. Close win over Tennessee. Blowout over Portland State and a closer than expected win over ASU due to their talented defense. But Stanford outphysicals them onroute to the upset, then a recovery destruction over WSU. They then reel off 4 incredibly tough wins over UCLA, USC, UW, and Cal. But they close out the year before the Civil War with a loss to Arizona. At 9-2, they are tied for first in the conference with…
Oregon State Prediction: The typically awful start befells the Beavs, as they start at 1-3 with losses to TCU, Boise, and ASU and only a win against Louisville. But they reel off 6 straight wins over UA, UW, Cal, UCLA, WSU, and USC. But a loss to Stanford put them with 2 losses in conference heading into the Civil War…
Civil War/Conference Title Game Prediction: In another Civil War for the Roses, Oregon State and Oregon play one of the best games of the year. James Rodgers catches a winning touchdown in the last minute and OS prevails.
Oregon State Best Case: Rose, 10-2
Oregon State Worst: 6-6. Awful QB, little support.
Monday, August 30, 2010
Season Forecast: Stanford
Stanford Worst Case: The Cardinal look wobbly against Sac State, but still win convincingly. Then it all goes downhill. First, a loss to UCLA. They sneak by Wake Forest. They loss to Notre Dame. Then Oregon. Finally USC. They recover with a win verse Washington State, before dropping 2 more against UW and UA. They finally recover with a win verse ASU, but drop the Big Game and the game against OS. A disappointing 4-8.
Stanford Prediction: The Cardinal wins convincingly over Sac State, prompting “No Luck needed in Stanford blowout,” headlines across the nation. But those headliners are stunned, as UCLA topples the Cardinal in the Rose Bowl. But the resilient Cardinal recover with wins over ND and a huge upset against Oregon, before dropping a game against USC going into the bye. Coming out of the bye, they take out WSU before dropping 2 straight against UW and UA. They dispatch ASU before dropping another epic Big Game against Cal. They close the year with a win over OS to go 7-5.
Stanford Prediction: The Cardinal wins convincingly over Sac State, prompting “No Luck needed in Stanford blowout,” headlines across the nation. But those headliners are stunned, as UCLA topples the Cardinal in the Rose Bowl. But the resilient Cardinal recover with wins over ND and a huge upset against Oregon, before dropping a game against USC going into the bye. Coming out of the bye, they take out WSU before dropping 2 straight against UW and UA. They dispatch ASU before dropping another epic Big Game against Cal. They close the year with a win over OS to go 7-5.
Season Forecast: UCLA/USC
USC’s best case/worst case has already been done, so it’s just a prediction for them.
USC Prediction: Easy wins over Hawaii, Virginia, Minnesota, and WSU open the year. “NATIONAL CHAMP USC IS BACK!!!” proclaims sportswriters. Then they go out and get ripped to shreds by Jake Locker, who humbles Troy in LA to bring them to 4-1. They recover to beat “what’s your deal?” Stanford, but fall to Furd’s rival Cal the next week. Oregon also defeats the Trojans, but USC recovers with back to back wins over the Arizona schools. Back in hostile Corvallis, OS takes out USC yet again led by the Rodgers. At 7-4, USC wins 2 straight over ND and UCLA to close the year 9-4.
UCLA Best Case: Opening the season with a win over Kansas State is nice. Beating Stanford is even better. Beating Houston and starting 3-0? Priceless. A nailbiter it Texas can’t damper the hopes, as wins over Cal+WSU have UCLA opening the year 5-1. Losing to Oregon is disappointing but expected, and splitting Arizona and Oregon State sends Westwood into bedlam; 6-3 is more wins than they’ve in the last 2 regular seasons. Beating Washington and Arizona State is okay they guess, but they want SC. With a win over the Trojans by 14, UCLA can truly say the monopoly in LA is over. They win the bowl to go 10-3 on the year.
UCLA Worst Case: Loss: Kansas State. Loss: Stanford. Loss: Houston. Loss: Texas. UCLA opens the year 0-4 before finally beating WSU. It doesn’t get better, losing to Cal next and then to Oregon, Arizona, and Oregon State. They do recover to beat UW and ASU, but USC absolutely crushes the Bruins to take hold of LA yet again. 3-9 is the sad sad final.
UCLA Prediction: A loss to Kansas State sends the campus into a panic, but wins over Stanford and Houston calm the masses. A loss to Texas doesn’t make many people angry, and a win over WSU sets them on their way. A loss to Cal is disappointing, as they had hope to defeat big brother. A loss to Oregon is expected, but a win over Arizona gets them back on track. The alternating wins/losses works for them, so they loss to Oregon State but recover to beat Washington. Following the pattern, they are shocked by Arizona State. Needing a win over SC to get to a bowl, UCLA fights but just can’t pull it out to finish 5-7.
USC Prediction: Easy wins over Hawaii, Virginia, Minnesota, and WSU open the year. “NATIONAL CHAMP USC IS BACK!!!” proclaims sportswriters. Then they go out and get ripped to shreds by Jake Locker, who humbles Troy in LA to bring them to 4-1. They recover to beat “what’s your deal?” Stanford, but fall to Furd’s rival Cal the next week. Oregon also defeats the Trojans, but USC recovers with back to back wins over the Arizona schools. Back in hostile Corvallis, OS takes out USC yet again led by the Rodgers. At 7-4, USC wins 2 straight over ND and UCLA to close the year 9-4.
UCLA Best Case: Opening the season with a win over Kansas State is nice. Beating Stanford is even better. Beating Houston and starting 3-0? Priceless. A nailbiter it Texas can’t damper the hopes, as wins over Cal+WSU have UCLA opening the year 5-1. Losing to Oregon is disappointing but expected, and splitting Arizona and Oregon State sends Westwood into bedlam; 6-3 is more wins than they’ve in the last 2 regular seasons. Beating Washington and Arizona State is okay they guess, but they want SC. With a win over the Trojans by 14, UCLA can truly say the monopoly in LA is over. They win the bowl to go 10-3 on the year.
UCLA Worst Case: Loss: Kansas State. Loss: Stanford. Loss: Houston. Loss: Texas. UCLA opens the year 0-4 before finally beating WSU. It doesn’t get better, losing to Cal next and then to Oregon, Arizona, and Oregon State. They do recover to beat UW and ASU, but USC absolutely crushes the Bruins to take hold of LA yet again. 3-9 is the sad sad final.
UCLA Prediction: A loss to Kansas State sends the campus into a panic, but wins over Stanford and Houston calm the masses. A loss to Texas doesn’t make many people angry, and a win over WSU sets them on their way. A loss to Cal is disappointing, as they had hope to defeat big brother. A loss to Oregon is expected, but a win over Arizona gets them back on track. The alternating wins/losses works for them, so they loss to Oregon State but recover to beat Washington. Following the pattern, they are shocked by Arizona State. Needing a win over SC to get to a bowl, UCLA fights but just can’t pull it out to finish 5-7.
Saturday, August 28, 2010
Season Forecast: Washington/Washington State
This is the 2nd dual feature here, with Arizona/Arizona State being the first one. Today, it’s the forecast for Washington and Washington State.
Washington, Best Case: Jake Locker avenges a heartbreaking loss against BYU from a game a few years back by making sure the refs can’t decide the game, then takes out Syracuse. Nebraska proves to be too much for the Huskies, but after a bye they upset USC yet again. Wins over Arizona State and Oregon State help prove UW is for real, and then they go on the road to beat Arizona. Stanford is a bad match for UW, but they still get a W. Followed up by a loss to Oregon, the Huskies fall to 6-3. But they close the year with 3 straight wins over UCLA, Cal, and WSU to go 10-2. 2nd place in the Pac-10, they win their bowl.
Washington Worst Case: A loss to BYU dampers hopes, but they respond with a win over Syracuse. Semi-expected losses to Nebraska and USC aren’t heartbreaking, and a win over ASU gets them back on track. Locker gets hurt in that game, and the inexperienced backups take up the slack. But losses to OSU, Arizona, Furd, and Oregon bring the season crashing down. They then lose to UCLA and Cal, putting them at 2-9 going into the Apple Cup. They then lose the Apple Cup to go to 2-10 on the year.
Washington Prediction: UW opens with wins against BYU and Nebraska, and the expectations just keep rising. But a home loss to a tough Nebraska defense takes them back to reality. But then they do it again; they take out the Trojans to go to 3-1. A win over ASU takes them to 4-1. “UW is back!” proclaim the talking head. But losses to Oregon State due to some suspect linebacking, and then a loss to Arizona on the road brings them crashing down to earth. A win over Stanford looks nice, but it follows with a loss to Oregon. A Thursday night upset by UCLA brings them crashing down; at 5-5 will they make a bowl? A win at Cal takes care of those qualms, and then a blowout over WSU brings them to 7-5.
Washington State, Best Case: A win over Oklahoma State is a shock; a Big-12 top team losing to a Pac-10 cellar dweller? A win over SMU sends Pullman into shock; halfway to a bowl with 9 games to play? A loss to USC is disappointing but not unexpected, but then WSU shocks the Bruins on the road to go to 4-1. Losses to Oregon, Arizona, and Stanford are expected, but they respond to a tough stretch with another road win over ASU. 5-4 is perhaps the most shocking mark in the entire nation; can this Cougar team get to a bowl? Losses to Cal and Oregon State takes the Cougs to a winner take all Apple Cup. Washington State does all the little things right, and takes out the Huskies to make to a bowl at 6-6. They even win the bowl to go to 7-6, and Wolff gets an extension.
Washington State, Worst Case: Loss to Oklahoma State. Shocking loss to FCS team Montana State. Loss to C-USA team SMU. Losses to everybody in conference leading up to the Apple Cup. It’s already announced Wolff will be fired going into the Apple Cup. UW sends him out the wrong way, smashing WSU 56-3.
Washington State, Prediction: A win over Oklahoma State, who is losing everything, is shocking. A win over Montana State sends WSU to 2-0, the 1st time since 2005. They lose to SMU, which is painful. But still, they believe they can win a game in conference this year. It doesn’t happen. Not all blowout, mind you; but they just don’t have the guns to pull out a close game. A close loss to UW at the end of the season does little to assuage their sorrow, as a 2-10 season is only a slight improvement.
Washington, Best Case: Jake Locker avenges a heartbreaking loss against BYU from a game a few years back by making sure the refs can’t decide the game, then takes out Syracuse. Nebraska proves to be too much for the Huskies, but after a bye they upset USC yet again. Wins over Arizona State and Oregon State help prove UW is for real, and then they go on the road to beat Arizona. Stanford is a bad match for UW, but they still get a W. Followed up by a loss to Oregon, the Huskies fall to 6-3. But they close the year with 3 straight wins over UCLA, Cal, and WSU to go 10-2. 2nd place in the Pac-10, they win their bowl.
Washington Worst Case: A loss to BYU dampers hopes, but they respond with a win over Syracuse. Semi-expected losses to Nebraska and USC aren’t heartbreaking, and a win over ASU gets them back on track. Locker gets hurt in that game, and the inexperienced backups take up the slack. But losses to OSU, Arizona, Furd, and Oregon bring the season crashing down. They then lose to UCLA and Cal, putting them at 2-9 going into the Apple Cup. They then lose the Apple Cup to go to 2-10 on the year.
Washington Prediction: UW opens with wins against BYU and Nebraska, and the expectations just keep rising. But a home loss to a tough Nebraska defense takes them back to reality. But then they do it again; they take out the Trojans to go to 3-1. A win over ASU takes them to 4-1. “UW is back!” proclaim the talking head. But losses to Oregon State due to some suspect linebacking, and then a loss to Arizona on the road brings them crashing down to earth. A win over Stanford looks nice, but it follows with a loss to Oregon. A Thursday night upset by UCLA brings them crashing down; at 5-5 will they make a bowl? A win at Cal takes care of those qualms, and then a blowout over WSU brings them to 7-5.
Washington State, Best Case: A win over Oklahoma State is a shock; a Big-12 top team losing to a Pac-10 cellar dweller? A win over SMU sends Pullman into shock; halfway to a bowl with 9 games to play? A loss to USC is disappointing but not unexpected, but then WSU shocks the Bruins on the road to go to 4-1. Losses to Oregon, Arizona, and Stanford are expected, but they respond to a tough stretch with another road win over ASU. 5-4 is perhaps the most shocking mark in the entire nation; can this Cougar team get to a bowl? Losses to Cal and Oregon State takes the Cougs to a winner take all Apple Cup. Washington State does all the little things right, and takes out the Huskies to make to a bowl at 6-6. They even win the bowl to go to 7-6, and Wolff gets an extension.
Washington State, Worst Case: Loss to Oklahoma State. Shocking loss to FCS team Montana State. Loss to C-USA team SMU. Losses to everybody in conference leading up to the Apple Cup. It’s already announced Wolff will be fired going into the Apple Cup. UW sends him out the wrong way, smashing WSU 56-3.
Washington State, Prediction: A win over Oklahoma State, who is losing everything, is shocking. A win over Montana State sends WSU to 2-0, the 1st time since 2005. They lose to SMU, which is painful. But still, they believe they can win a game in conference this year. It doesn’t happen. Not all blowout, mind you; but they just don’t have the guns to pull out a close game. A close loss to UW at the end of the season does little to assuage their sorrow, as a 2-10 season is only a slight improvement.
Friday, August 27, 2010
Arizona State/Arizona Season Forecast
Since I have no time before the season starts, I’ll do these 2 at a time, and very quickly. Quick writing here!
Arizona Best Case: Arizona rolls by Toledo and The Citadel, and then sink Iowa in a huge upset that showcases the spread attack. Arizona continues befuddling Cal in Tuscon, and takes that one to go 4-0. They do take out OS, barely as the Rodgers come up big. They sweep the Washingtons due to having UW at home to get to 7-0, and into the Top 15. UCLA is the next victim, and suddenly they are 8-0. Stanford is too physical for the undersized Wildcats, and USC is able to sneak a win out in Tuscon due to superior talent at 8-2. Oregon is unsuspecting on a Friday Night, and Arizona is able to pull off a huge upset over Pac-10 leader UO. They close with a blowout over ASU, and they go to the Rose Bowl.
Arizona Worst Case: The warning signs are there against Toledo, but they still start 2-0. Iowa smacks them in the mouth, and Cal responds with a Vereen huge day to bring them to 2-2. OS is able to run Jacquizz down UA’s throat, and now the preseason hyped Wildcats are 2-3. They sneak a win past WSU, but Washington’s duo of Polk and Locker is too much for UA, and they get back below .500. UCLA has just enough to beat Arizona, and Stanford and USC respond with blowout wins. Oregon follows suit, and ASU wins the rivalry to establish state supremacy. 3-9 for the hugely disappointing Wildcats.
Arizona Prediction: Arizona beats Toldeo and Citadel in predictable fashion. But the hard-nosed Hawkeyes have the running game to exploit the weak front 7, and the UA offense just can’t outscore them. Then Cal finally shakes their Tuscon curse, and beats Arizona behind Vereen and the Cal O-Line exploting a new linebacker corp. Arizona cannot stop Jacquizz or James, and Nic Grigsby can’t run for quite enough to pull off the W. Arizona responds with a sweep of the Washingtons, with an easy win over WSU and then a squeaker against Washington that has a toss-up feel. With a rocking Rose Bowl and a bad UA defense is a perfect storm for the Bruins, as their physical run game plows over the Wildcats. Arizona responds with a win over Stanford, with Foles passing over a so-so Furd pass D. USC is able to beat the Wildcats to bring them to 5-5. Out of the Pac-10 race, they take on an Oregon team needing a win to clinch a conference title. But Arizona springs a trap, as the Arizona D is sharp and Foles is able to make the passes while Grigsby complements him. UO pulls off the upset. UA closes the year with a win over rival ASU.
Arizona State Best Case (This one=quicker): After opening the year with 2 easy wins, Wisconsin is able to pick up a win in Camp Randall. A close loss at home to Oregon is no big deal; after all, they are #1 in the Pac. A big upset in Corvallis over OS brings hope, and then another road win over Washington brings them to 4-2. Cal stops the string at 2 road wins, but ASU responds with a win over WSU. USC takes out ASU, and Luck is able to pass the Furd pass the Devils. ASU closes the year with a win over UCLA and a huge one over rival Arizona, to bring their record to 7-5. They win their bowl game.
Worst Case: Disaster. They beat PSU (Portland) and NAU, but respond with 5 straight losses before a win over WSU. That’s the last one they get, as they finish the year 3-9. Erickson is fired.
Prediction: Predictable wins over the FCS teams. Predictable losses to Oregon and Wisconsin. A very surprising win against Oregon State was made by Burfict and the linebackers holding Quizz in check. They still fall against Washington, as Locker passes over them. Cal takes out the Sun Devils, and then ASU follows it up with a win over WSU. They lose a tough next 2 (Furd+USC), but do manage a win over UCLA. Sadly, they lose to rival Arizona and finish 5-7.
Arizona Best Case: Arizona rolls by Toledo and The Citadel, and then sink Iowa in a huge upset that showcases the spread attack. Arizona continues befuddling Cal in Tuscon, and takes that one to go 4-0. They do take out OS, barely as the Rodgers come up big. They sweep the Washingtons due to having UW at home to get to 7-0, and into the Top 15. UCLA is the next victim, and suddenly they are 8-0. Stanford is too physical for the undersized Wildcats, and USC is able to sneak a win out in Tuscon due to superior talent at 8-2. Oregon is unsuspecting on a Friday Night, and Arizona is able to pull off a huge upset over Pac-10 leader UO. They close with a blowout over ASU, and they go to the Rose Bowl.
Arizona Worst Case: The warning signs are there against Toledo, but they still start 2-0. Iowa smacks them in the mouth, and Cal responds with a Vereen huge day to bring them to 2-2. OS is able to run Jacquizz down UA’s throat, and now the preseason hyped Wildcats are 2-3. They sneak a win past WSU, but Washington’s duo of Polk and Locker is too much for UA, and they get back below .500. UCLA has just enough to beat Arizona, and Stanford and USC respond with blowout wins. Oregon follows suit, and ASU wins the rivalry to establish state supremacy. 3-9 for the hugely disappointing Wildcats.
Arizona Prediction: Arizona beats Toldeo and Citadel in predictable fashion. But the hard-nosed Hawkeyes have the running game to exploit the weak front 7, and the UA offense just can’t outscore them. Then Cal finally shakes their Tuscon curse, and beats Arizona behind Vereen and the Cal O-Line exploting a new linebacker corp. Arizona cannot stop Jacquizz or James, and Nic Grigsby can’t run for quite enough to pull off the W. Arizona responds with a sweep of the Washingtons, with an easy win over WSU and then a squeaker against Washington that has a toss-up feel. With a rocking Rose Bowl and a bad UA defense is a perfect storm for the Bruins, as their physical run game plows over the Wildcats. Arizona responds with a win over Stanford, with Foles passing over a so-so Furd pass D. USC is able to beat the Wildcats to bring them to 5-5. Out of the Pac-10 race, they take on an Oregon team needing a win to clinch a conference title. But Arizona springs a trap, as the Arizona D is sharp and Foles is able to make the passes while Grigsby complements him. UO pulls off the upset. UA closes the year with a win over rival ASU.
Arizona State Best Case (This one=quicker): After opening the year with 2 easy wins, Wisconsin is able to pick up a win in Camp Randall. A close loss at home to Oregon is no big deal; after all, they are #1 in the Pac. A big upset in Corvallis over OS brings hope, and then another road win over Washington brings them to 4-2. Cal stops the string at 2 road wins, but ASU responds with a win over WSU. USC takes out ASU, and Luck is able to pass the Furd pass the Devils. ASU closes the year with a win over UCLA and a huge one over rival Arizona, to bring their record to 7-5. They win their bowl game.
Worst Case: Disaster. They beat PSU (Portland) and NAU, but respond with 5 straight losses before a win over WSU. That’s the last one they get, as they finish the year 3-9. Erickson is fired.
Prediction: Predictable wins over the FCS teams. Predictable losses to Oregon and Wisconsin. A very surprising win against Oregon State was made by Burfict and the linebackers holding Quizz in check. They still fall against Washington, as Locker passes over them. Cal takes out the Sun Devils, and then ASU follows it up with a win over WSU. They lose a tough next 2 (Furd+USC), but do manage a win over UCLA. Sadly, they lose to rival Arizona and finish 5-7.
Thursday, August 19, 2010
A look at Kevin Riley, Part 3
Okay, this is probably annoying you all to death, but there’s only 2 more left (this one+part 4). So enjoy it while you can. Anyway, we’ve taken a look at him by reviewing his overall stats, his stats by game, and by how he performed against tough (and weak) defenses. Now we take a look at him by down.
Now my prototypical QB would be efficient on all downs, but you’d probably prefer he be at his best on 2nd or 3rd down because those are the more “important” situations. Now here’s his stats by down. (All stats from cfbstats.com, which is probably the greatest college football stat site around.)
1st down: 81-155, 52.3%, 1,434 yards, 10 TD, 3 INT, 41 plays of 15 yards or more, 16 of 25 or more
The easy stuff: 41% of his attempts were on 1st down, and 39% of his completions were on 1st; his completion percentage drops over 2% on 1st downs. But a little bit over 50% of his yardage came on 1st; and 55% of his TDs came on 1st, compared to 38% of his picks. Yards per attempt: 9.25. That’s great.
2nd down: 73-113, 64.6%, 842 yards, 5 TD, 0 INT, 20 plays of 15 yards or more, 5 of 25 or more
Riley played much better on second down, with a 10% higher completion rate, and a yards per attempt at 7.45, which is interesting considering his completion %. It is right at his normal rate. Only 30% of his attempts were on 2nd, and 35% of his completions. 28% of his TDs came on 2nd, while 0% of his INT came there. With all of his stats above seemingly, we’ll see how it bodes on 3rd down.
3rd down (regardless of situation; all 3rd downs): 54-110, 49.1%, 550 yards, 5 TD, 2 INT, 14 15+, 2 20+
29% of his attempts, 26% of his completions, and only 19% of his yards. He was pretty bad on 3rd’s, but I guess most take a hit due to the pass heavy situations. His YPA was only 5 yards! So Riley pretty much was gahawful on 3rd’s.
Looking at these stats, Riley looks like a very very good QB on 1st and 2nd down, and then like a 3rd stringer on 3rd down. While I haven’t gotten the numbers yet, it would appear that Riley struggles when the pressure is ramped up and is very good when his back isn’t shoved against a wall. This could be a guess, but from the looks of these numbers it’s a conclusion you could draw.
Now my prototypical QB would be efficient on all downs, but you’d probably prefer he be at his best on 2nd or 3rd down because those are the more “important” situations. Now here’s his stats by down. (All stats from cfbstats.com, which is probably the greatest college football stat site around.)
1st down: 81-155, 52.3%, 1,434 yards, 10 TD, 3 INT, 41 plays of 15 yards or more, 16 of 25 or more
The easy stuff: 41% of his attempts were on 1st down, and 39% of his completions were on 1st; his completion percentage drops over 2% on 1st downs. But a little bit over 50% of his yardage came on 1st; and 55% of his TDs came on 1st, compared to 38% of his picks. Yards per attempt: 9.25. That’s great.
2nd down: 73-113, 64.6%, 842 yards, 5 TD, 0 INT, 20 plays of 15 yards or more, 5 of 25 or more
Riley played much better on second down, with a 10% higher completion rate, and a yards per attempt at 7.45, which is interesting considering his completion %. It is right at his normal rate. Only 30% of his attempts were on 2nd, and 35% of his completions. 28% of his TDs came on 2nd, while 0% of his INT came there. With all of his stats above seemingly, we’ll see how it bodes on 3rd down.
3rd down (regardless of situation; all 3rd downs): 54-110, 49.1%, 550 yards, 5 TD, 2 INT, 14 15+, 2 20+
29% of his attempts, 26% of his completions, and only 19% of his yards. He was pretty bad on 3rd’s, but I guess most take a hit due to the pass heavy situations. His YPA was only 5 yards! So Riley pretty much was gahawful on 3rd’s.
Looking at these stats, Riley looks like a very very good QB on 1st and 2nd down, and then like a 3rd stringer on 3rd down. While I haven’t gotten the numbers yet, it would appear that Riley struggles when the pressure is ramped up and is very good when his back isn’t shoved against a wall. This could be a guess, but from the looks of these numbers it’s a conclusion you could draw.
My take on Kevin Riley: Part 2
After taking a statistical look at Riley, now we take a game by game look at him. Here it goes:
Game 1 vs. Maryland: 17-26, 65.4%, 4 TD, 0 INT
Analysis: This is where many people began to believe in Kevin. One of the most impressive quarterback performances since Aaron Rodgers, Riley was nearly perfect against the Terps. Maryland did end up being awful, but still it was a great performance from Riley. Nothing more could be asked from.
Game 2 vs. Eastern Washington: 13-20, 148 yards, 65%, 1 TD, 0 INT
Analysis: This game could be thrown out just based on the competition, but still a very good game from Riley. Completed 65% of his passes again, didn’t play the whole game due to it being Eastern Washington.
Game 3 at Minnesota: 16-25, 252 yards, 64%, 0 TD, 0 INT
Analysis: Again, a great performance from Kevin. Didn’t have to win the game with Best running for 4 TD, so he just completed the great majority of the passes and kept the ball moving.
Game 4 at Oregon: 12-31, 123 yards, 38.7%, 0 TD, 0 INT
Analysis: Let’s never discuss this game. Truly a terrible, no good, awful performance. Low yardage, low completion percentage, low quality.
Game 5: vs. USC: 15-40, 199 yards, 37.5%, 0 TD, 1 INT
Analysis: Back to back performances of this quality, as Riley missed wide wide open receivers and threw an interception inside the red zone that helped break the Bears back. Same thing from above goes here.
Game 6 at UCLA: 14-23, 205 yards, 60.9%, 3 TD, 0 INT
Analysis: Good Riley came back here. He spent most of the day watching Jahvid Best and Shane Vereen run all over UCLA, but when he did throw he was efficient. Found Marvin Jones several times deep and played perhaps his best game of the year to this date.
Analysis: Sure, it looks great on the stat sheet, but it was Wazzu. Still, can’t discount his very good numbers even if they were against WSU.
Game 8 at Arizona State: 27-44, 351 yards, 61.4%, 2 TD, 0 INT
Analysis: This was one of my favorite games of the year. Riley was absolutely terrific, leading the Bears down the field for a game winning drive against a very tough and talented defense. When Best and Vereen were shut down, Riley stepped up and took the slack.
Game 9 vs. Oregon State: 19-34, 200 yards, 55.9%, 1 TD, 1 INT
Analysis: Awful game. Not from Riley alone, but overall. The offensive line was complete and utter garbage, our running back almost got killed, and our defense was ripped to shreds. The stats look okay, but he did rack up a touchdown in garbage time.
Game 10 vs. Arizona: 13-22, 181 yards, 59.1%, 1 TD, 2 INT
Analysis: An okay game. Shane Vereen and the defense carried the team, but Riley did a serviceable job too. Nothing special, and he did toss the 2 picks, but he did alright.
Game 11 at Stanford: 17-31, 235 yards, 54.8%, 1 TD, 1 INT
Analysis: It’s funny; I remember Riley playing a lot better this game, but his stats look mediocre. While Vereen carried the team, Riley was on in the second half and made plays when he had too. I put this in the “Good Riley” category.
Game 12 at Washington: 14-32, 215 yards, 43.8%, 1 TD, 0 INT
Analysis: I missed this game, so I’ll let the stats speak for themselves.
Game 13 vs. Utah: 20-36, 214 yards, 55.6%, 1 TD, 2 INT
Analysis: I missed a large chunk of this game, but looking at the numbers I stick this in “Okay Riley”. Our defense was pretty bad in this one, and Riley put together his prototypical “Okay Riley” showing.
So now we crunch the numbers. Using Phil Steele’s pass defense rankings (which weigh both numbers and strength of competition), here’s how Riley did against the various ranges:
1-10: 20-36, 214 yards, 55.6%, 1 TD, 2 INT. 1 game; Utah.
11-20: 42-84, 550 yards, 50%, 2 TD, 1 INT. 2 games: USC, ASU.
21-30: 12-31, 123 yards, 38.7%, 0 TD, 0 INT. 1 game: Oregon.
31-40: 27-45, 386 yards, 60%, 4 TD, 2 INT. 2 games: Arizona, UCLA
41-50: N/A.
51-60: 16-25, 252 yards, 64%, 0 TD, 0 INT. 1 game: Minnesota
61-70: 19-34, 200 yards, 55.9%, 1 TD, 1 INT. 1 game: OSU.
71-80: N/A.
81-90: N/A
91-100: 48-89, 748 yards, 53.9%, 6 TD, 1 INT. 3 games: Washington, Stanford, Maryland
101-110: 12-18, 229 yards, 66.7%, 3 TD, 1 INT. 1 game: Washington State
111-120: N/A
Overall, there’s not too much to discern from the quality of opponent. While he does do worse against better competition, the difference between 91-100 and 11-20 is not big enough to say, “OMG PLAYING AGAINST GOOD TEAMS RILEY IS AWFUL.” Sure, he is worse, but who gets better against the best secondary’s?
And for our finally stat, here’s the good Riley to Okay Riley to Bad Riley numbers:
Good Riley’s: 6 (Maryland, Minnesota, Eastern Washington, Washington State, Arizona State, UCLA; Stanford not included due to stats)
Okay Riley’s: 3 (Stanford, Arizona, Utah)
Bad Riley’s: 3 (USC, Oregon, Oregon State)
What to discern from these stats: Good Riley was around 50%, a solid or better Riley was around 75% of the time, and awful Riley was around 25% of the time. In order for Riley to have a successful senior season, Bad Riley needs to be eliminated. Good Riley needs to be around for at least 9 games, if not more, and okay Riley (and the okay Riley of Stanford more than Arizona/Utah) needs to be around every time the good one isn’t. A USC or Oregon performance and the season could be a failure after one game.
One stat to close: Nevada Pass Rank: 117, Colorado Pass Rank: 53. Those are the new opponents for this season.
Oh yeah, and if you missed the post before (cause it is the same day and all), it can be found below or here. Go Kevin Riley!
Game 1 vs. Maryland: 17-26, 65.4%, 4 TD, 0 INT
Analysis: This is where many people began to believe in Kevin. One of the most impressive quarterback performances since Aaron Rodgers, Riley was nearly perfect against the Terps. Maryland did end up being awful, but still it was a great performance from Riley. Nothing more could be asked from.
Riley was good against Maryland, and not just at handing it off.
Game 2 vs. Eastern Washington: 13-20, 148 yards, 65%, 1 TD, 0 INT
Analysis: This game could be thrown out just based on the competition, but still a very good game from Riley. Completed 65% of his passes again, didn’t play the whole game due to it being Eastern Washington.
"So easy, a caveman could do it!"
Game 3 at Minnesota: 16-25, 252 yards, 64%, 0 TD, 0 INT
Analysis: Again, a great performance from Kevin. Didn’t have to win the game with Best running for 4 TD, so he just completed the great majority of the passes and kept the ball moving.
Other than this, Good Riley!
Game 4 at Oregon: 12-31, 123 yards, 38.7%, 0 TD, 0 INT
Analysis: Let’s never discuss this game. Truly a terrible, no good, awful performance. Low yardage, low completion percentage, low quality.
A familiar sight; Riley pressured, offensive line collapse.
Game 5: vs. USC: 15-40, 199 yards, 37.5%, 0 TD, 1 INT
Analysis: Back to back performances of this quality, as Riley missed wide wide open receivers and threw an interception inside the red zone that helped break the Bears back. Same thing from above goes here.
Painful.
Game 6 at UCLA: 14-23, 205 yards, 60.9%, 3 TD, 0 INT
Analysis: Good Riley came back here. He spent most of the day watching Jahvid Best and Shane Vereen run all over UCLA, but when he did throw he was efficient. Found Marvin Jones several times deep and played perhaps his best game of the year to this date.
Run Kevin Run!
Game 7 vs. Washington State: 12-18, 229 yards, 66.7%, 3 TD, 1 INTAnalysis: Sure, it looks great on the stat sheet, but it was Wazzu. Still, can’t discount his very good numbers even if they were against WSU.
Nice stache.
Game 8 at Arizona State: 27-44, 351 yards, 61.4%, 2 TD, 0 INT
Analysis: This was one of my favorite games of the year. Riley was absolutely terrific, leading the Bears down the field for a game winning drive against a very tough and talented defense. When Best and Vereen were shut down, Riley stepped up and took the slack.
Calm. Cool. Collected.
Game 9 vs. Oregon State: 19-34, 200 yards, 55.9%, 1 TD, 1 INT
Analysis: Awful game. Not from Riley alone, but overall. The offensive line was complete and utter garbage, our running back almost got killed, and our defense was ripped to shreds. The stats look okay, but he did rack up a touchdown in garbage time.
Describes that whole awful game well.
Game 10 vs. Arizona: 13-22, 181 yards, 59.1%, 1 TD, 2 INT
Analysis: An okay game. Shane Vereen and the defense carried the team, but Riley did a serviceable job too. Nothing special, and he did toss the 2 picks, but he did alright.
He's like Vick!
Game 11 at Stanford: 17-31, 235 yards, 54.8%, 1 TD, 1 INT
Analysis: It’s funny; I remember Riley playing a lot better this game, but his stats look mediocre. While Vereen carried the team, Riley was on in the second half and made plays when he had too. I put this in the “Good Riley” category.
The aftermath: shirtless dudes.
Game 12 at Washington: 14-32, 215 yards, 43.8%, 1 TD, 0 INT
Analysis: I missed this game, so I’ll let the stats speak for themselves.
Game 13 vs. Utah: 20-36, 214 yards, 55.6%, 1 TD, 2 INT
Analysis: I missed a large chunk of this game, but looking at the numbers I stick this in “Okay Riley”. Our defense was pretty bad in this one, and Riley put together his prototypical “Okay Riley” showing.
Bleh.
So now we crunch the numbers. Using Phil Steele’s pass defense rankings (which weigh both numbers and strength of competition), here’s how Riley did against the various ranges:
1-10: 20-36, 214 yards, 55.6%, 1 TD, 2 INT. 1 game; Utah.
11-20: 42-84, 550 yards, 50%, 2 TD, 1 INT. 2 games: USC, ASU.
21-30: 12-31, 123 yards, 38.7%, 0 TD, 0 INT. 1 game: Oregon.
31-40: 27-45, 386 yards, 60%, 4 TD, 2 INT. 2 games: Arizona, UCLA
41-50: N/A.
51-60: 16-25, 252 yards, 64%, 0 TD, 0 INT. 1 game: Minnesota
61-70: 19-34, 200 yards, 55.9%, 1 TD, 1 INT. 1 game: OSU.
71-80: N/A.
81-90: N/A
91-100: 48-89, 748 yards, 53.9%, 6 TD, 1 INT. 3 games: Washington, Stanford, Maryland
101-110: 12-18, 229 yards, 66.7%, 3 TD, 1 INT. 1 game: Washington State
111-120: N/A
Overall, there’s not too much to discern from the quality of opponent. While he does do worse against better competition, the difference between 91-100 and 11-20 is not big enough to say, “OMG PLAYING AGAINST GOOD TEAMS RILEY IS AWFUL.” Sure, he is worse, but who gets better against the best secondary’s?
And for our finally stat, here’s the good Riley to Okay Riley to Bad Riley numbers:
Good Riley’s: 6 (Maryland, Minnesota, Eastern Washington, Washington State, Arizona State, UCLA; Stanford not included due to stats)
Okay Riley’s: 3 (Stanford, Arizona, Utah)
Bad Riley’s: 3 (USC, Oregon, Oregon State)
What to discern from these stats: Good Riley was around 50%, a solid or better Riley was around 75% of the time, and awful Riley was around 25% of the time. In order for Riley to have a successful senior season, Bad Riley needs to be eliminated. Good Riley needs to be around for at least 9 games, if not more, and okay Riley (and the okay Riley of Stanford more than Arizona/Utah) needs to be around every time the good one isn’t. A USC or Oregon performance and the season could be a failure after one game.
One stat to close: Nevada Pass Rank: 117, Colorado Pass Rank: 53. Those are the new opponents for this season.
Oh yeah, and if you missed the post before (cause it is the same day and all), it can be found below or here. Go Kevin Riley!
Browner, Kendricks to start at outside linebacker
Kendricks vs. Eastern Washington
Not surprising, but the starters at outside linebacker will be Mychal Kendricks and Keith Browner. Browner, who started against Washington last year, and Kendricks, who played on the inside last year, both have experience from a year ago. However, neither are returning starters. Browner, who is huge at 6-6 250, was part of the debacle at Washington a year ago but does have upside. He’s a pass rusher more than a coverage linebacker, which fits well into new defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast’s scheme. Kendricks is the more talented of the duo, who could be an All-Conference player if he plays up to his talent. Kendricks had 71 tackles last year in 6 starts in last year, and had a huge interception against UCLA. Kendricks is talented in both coverage and rushing. With that, the position battles shrink; one inside linebacker, corner, and one defensive end spot are the only spots left on defense.
Browner
Wednesday, August 11, 2010
My take on Kevin Riley: Part 1
First, his completion percentage. 54.7% is a mark there’s no defending, but honestly I don’t put too much emphasis on completion percentage. A stat like yards per attempt takes in account all of th incompletions, but also gives credit to a passer who makes more deep plays. Besides, the difference between 54.7% and 58% with the passes he threw is a mere 1 completion per game; that’s no real difference. So I’m not concerned about his completion percentage; it certainly could us an increase and I think it will this season, but it’s not a huge deal.
Next up, his yards per attempt. This is what points to me thinking that there’s hope for Kevin. His yards per attempt are higher than Nick Foles, Jermiah Masoli, Sean Canfield, and Jake Locker. As in, he’s better on his attempts than 50% of the great quartet that went to ESPN as the “top” quarterbacks in the conference. His yards per attempt last year was at 7.46. So basically if you got a run for 3 yards, and you throw the ball twice then you’ll probably get yourself a first down. That’s perfectly fine for a quarterback.
Now, a look at his touchdowns. He threw 18 touchdowns a season ago. The average was 16, so he was slightly above average. Of the Pac-10 QBs, he threw more than ASU’s cluster****, Masoli, Andrew Luck, Kevin Prince, Barkley, and WSU’s QBs. So was better than 3 of the “top” Pac-10ers. 18 is a fine total; over 1 per game is just fine.
Finally, his interceptions, of which he threw 8 of. He only threw more than 1 against Arizona (2) and Utah (2). So even on his awful games, he didn’t give the ball up to the other team. Which is nice, but avoiding those awful games would be better. Notable Pac-10ers that threw more were Foles, Barkely, and Locker, 3 of the “top” Pac-10ers. His interception total is okay; a decrease would be very good.
So looking at the numbers he was actually very solid. Other than completion percentage, he was better than luminaries such as Foles, Barkley, and Locker. Riley may be much better than we give him credit for. And with a look toward 2010, an improved offensive line and improved receivers should only make him better. Go Bears and Go Kevin Riley!
And yeah, there will be a Part Two.
Season Forecast: USC
The first of a 2 part series regarding how the postseason-less Trojans will perform this season. They will be first, primarily because of the fact that there will be no bowls for USC. They still have to be considered one of the best teams in the conference, but one might expect decreased expectations on the team. Here is the best case scenario for the Trojans. Later on in this post will be the worst.
September 2nd at Hawaii: A complete blowout for the Trojans, something along the lines of the 56-3 win against San Jose State last year. This game enables a 13th game for the Trojans.
September 11th vs. Virginia: A repeat of the 2008 game, in which USC crushed the Cavs 52-7. Mark Sanchez helped quell any concerns in the 08 game; can Barkley show he can step up from his so-so performance last year? In this scenario, it happens as Barkley throws 4 TDs and USC rolls.
September 18th at Minnesota: Minnesota as a pretty good offense, but no defense. The offense of USC puts up 30+, and Minnesota can only muster 10 in another blowout for the Trojans.
September 25th at Washington State: Unlike last year, where a decently close game helped bring up the potential of the Trojan empire falling, USC puts together a performance that Coug fans are all too used too from 2008, where they were outscored by 236 in conference play. 56-0 SC.
October 2nd vs. Washington: A suspect secondary shows signs of life against the Huskies, holding Locker in relative check (Locker still does his damage). The front 7 dominates Polk and the UW offensive line, and the Huskies only put up 20 points. Bradford runs over the UW front 7, and Barkley manages the game effectively in a 31-20 win that exorcises the demons from last year.
October 9th at Stanford: “What’s your deal?” USC gets the perfect revenge over last year, as Kiffin does the same to Harbaugh as Harbaugh did to Carroll, going for 2 late in a blowout win. Taylor is no Gerhart, and the 2 missing offensive linemen prove crucial to the loss. Luck shows up like big game Luck. The Stanford defense gets plowed through in a 50 (48+2 point conversion)-13 crusher.
October 16th: vs. California: Barkley has his way with a still struggling Cal secondary, but an improve rush defense and special teams unit keeps it from being the blowout it was last year. A late Cal turnover and USC turnover gives the 28-14 final, another triumph for the Trojans to get them to 7-0. They now rank #3 in the latest poll.
October 30th vs. Oregon: With a bye to prepare, the Trojans aren’t befuddled by the Duck offense like they were last year. But they do have a solid passer in Nate Costa under center, who is able to do damage to the USC defense, which has been a brick wall all year long. LaMichael James is able to get his yards, and an experienced Oregon defense does just enough. In a 3 OT thriller, James runs it in for the TD and the 2 point conversion. Barkley answers with a touchdown of his own, but Bradford comes up an inch short on the 2 point conversion. It’s labeled “The Game of the Century.” Pollsters respect the Trojans effort, as they only fall to #7.
November 6th vs. Arizona State: USC responds from their first loss of the year by shellacking the quarterbackless Sun Devils. ASU can’t score a point, and Barkley has a field day against the suspect Sun Devil secondary. Backups play the whole 4th quarter.
November 13th at Arizona: Many call for an upset in Tuscon, as the Trojans can’t do this well this late in the season with so few scholarship players and with sanctions on them. Those who call for that are proved wrong, as the Trojans get to quarterback Nick Foles before he can expose the only “weakness” of the USC defense, the secondary. The defensive line records 5.5 sacks, and the linebackers add 1.5 of their own. The front 7 doesn’t allow Grigsby any room, and the Wildcats can’t muster more than 10 points. Bradford runs clear through a front 7 returning 2 starters, and the Trojans roll.
November 20th at Oregon State: “Okay,” analysts say. “This where Troy falls.” Given the fact the Beavs seemingly always beat USC, it’s a worthwhile prediction. And for 3 quarters, those analysts seem right. A 14-7 lead led by 2 Rodgers’ touchdowns and the USC offense sucking majorly leads to a deficit that could be more. But Barkley finds Johnson deep. Then he finds Butler for another touchdown. Then Bradford scores a rushing touchdown. A 21-6 run in the 4th gives SC the 28-20 lead and even more respect from the pollsters. Their record runs to 10-1. Notre Dame lurks.
November 27th vs. Notre Dame: For the 3rd straight week, analysts pick against USC. But this time, it’s only Lou Holtz. Everybody else is sold on the Trojans. And they prove it in LA. They run roughshod over their rival, and they just cannot be contained. It’s a statement win, but against a Notre Dame team that will miss a bowl (Yes, it’s that best case for USC).
December 4th at UCLA: At 5-6, UCLA needs a win to make a bowl. Consider it denied. Prince throws 4 picks, the UCLA running game never gets started, and Bradford runs for 140 yards on UCLA. Lane Kiffin doesn’t throw a run it up touchdown this time, and Slick Rick doesn’t call a timeout. They hand shake at center field, and USC is applauded for their class in going 12-1. The NCAA is vilified for not letting USC go to postseason play.
Postseason: Alabama wins the national title, showing a program can recover from sanctions. USC is #2 in the country. Despite the scholarship reductions, the recruiting class still ranks in the Top 20.
This was painful to write, apart from the Furd and ND predictions. Oh well. Let’s hope this never happens!
In which I tell you the future, here is the second part of this post on how USC’s season could shape out. Coming off a painful best case scenario where I had to write about them winning, now I get to talk about their worst case scenario. Normally, I would give you a short little overview, but I did that already. THE CONTENT:
September 2nd at Hawaii: A blowout is expected. Instead, Hawaii’s pass attack nearly pulls off the upset. With no returning starters in the secondary, the Trojans are ripped to shreds to the tune of 28 points allowed. But the bad Hawaii defense can’t keep up, and a late SC field goal gives them a 31-28 escape.
September 11th vs. Virginia: Virginia should be outmatched, but somehow they are able to stop the USC offense. They still can’t score, but the game comes down to the wire. Cavaliers just don’t have the horses, and they fall 13-7. An unimpressive 2-0 for the Trojans.
September 18th at Minnesota: Minnesota’s potent passing attack and the 5 returning starters on the offensive line give the Gophers points, and a defense with only 2 returning starters (but both safeties) is able to prevent the big play. Minnesota’s home field advantage plays a part, as a rattled Barkley throws a late pick to sink the Trojans, 27-21.
September 25th at Washington State: USC is good enough to win this game, but it comes at a price. Bradford injures his shoulder, and the running game falters. Barkley carries the load in a 27-10 win.
October 2nd vs. Washington: Barkley was hurt coming into last year’s game, and gets hurt…but this time it’s in the actual game. Barkley is hit in the first quarter and doesn’t get up, leading Mitch Mustain to get his chance. He throws 3 picks, and the backups don’t do the job at tailback. Meanwhile, Locker rips up the secondary with little experience from last year. USC falls, 31-13.
October 9th at Stanford: “What’s your deal?” Part 2 ensues. Stanford simply outphysicals the Trojans, and with the transfer their depth fails them. It doesn’t help that Bradford and Barkley are still out. Stanford rolls, but doesn’t score as many points as they did last year. 45-17 is the embarrassing result. 3-3 is a clear sign that this isn’t the same USC we remember.
October 16th: vs. California: Another game, another loss. Cal’s defense remembers last year’s embarrassment, and avenges it with a dominating performance. Kevin Riley redeems himself from last year, and the wounded Trojans just quit late. Lane Kiffin’s season starts 3-4 and loses 17-3 to the Golden Bears.
October 30th vs. Oregon: The 3-4 Trojans are now fully healthy, with a bye week to heal up. For a quarter, it looks like this team is ready to turn it around. USC comes out inspired at home, and takes a 10-0 lead before 15 minutes is up. But to start the second, the Trojans muff a punt and Oregon recovers it and runs it for a touchdown. A interception and run back brings it to 14-10, and the Ducks don’t look back onroute to a 34-16 victory. 3-5 is the new mark for USC.
November 6th vs. Arizona State: This USC team is still very talented. And they show it against the Sun Devils. Despite Bradford being shut down by Burfict and the ASU defense, Barkley does just enough to get points. The ASU offense is still awful, and USC escapes 17-6.
November 13th at Arizona: USC still has life. Sure, they do have an awful 4-5 record, but they are still a team loaded with touted recruits. And for one Saturday, Barkley looks like Carson Palmer. Bradford looks like Lendale White, and CJ Gable does a passable Reggie Bush. It is against a porous rush defense, but USC still gets a much needed W, 31-24.
November 20th at Oregon State: It’s the Rodgers’ show. Jacquizz rushes for 160, James receives for 50, and the Beavers run wild on the Trojans. Another date in Corvallis, another Trojan defeat. 31-21 is the final.
November 27th vs. Notre Dame: Fighting Irish haven’t shown much fight all year, and it shows. Sure, Dayne Crist can pass, but the run game never gets untracked. It doesn’t help that this is still a defense that is awful. Sure, it’s a rivalry between two struggling team, but USC gets the better of Notre Dame 16-10. Trojans are now a bowl-eligible 6-6, if they were actually able to make one.
December 4th at UCLA: UCLA has had a breakthrough season. They’re not Rose Bowl bound, but they’re in the upper echelon. And UCLA shows it against the 3-5 Pac-10 play Trojans, destroying them in front of the LA crowd. Many recruits are in attendance, and UCLA gets a flurry of commits. Meanwhile, USC can’t even fill the limited scholarships they have. UCLA takes control of LA, 35-10.
Postseason: As mentioned earlier, USC can’t fill their limited allotment of schollies. Bowl ban is extended for yet another year.
This was so much fun.
September 2nd at Hawaii: A complete blowout for the Trojans, something along the lines of the 56-3 win against San Jose State last year. This game enables a 13th game for the Trojans.
September 11th vs. Virginia: A repeat of the 2008 game, in which USC crushed the Cavs 52-7. Mark Sanchez helped quell any concerns in the 08 game; can Barkley show he can step up from his so-so performance last year? In this scenario, it happens as Barkley throws 4 TDs and USC rolls.
The one good UVA player in the last 5 years.
September 18th at Minnesota: Minnesota as a pretty good offense, but no defense. The offense of USC puts up 30+, and Minnesota can only muster 10 in another blowout for the Trojans.
Sucks he's in the NFL now.
September 25th at Washington State: Unlike last year, where a decently close game helped bring up the potential of the Trojan empire falling, USC puts together a performance that Coug fans are all too used too from 2008, where they were outscored by 236 in conference play. 56-0 SC.
This picture honestly creeps me out.
October 2nd vs. Washington: A suspect secondary shows signs of life against the Huskies, holding Locker in relative check (Locker still does his damage). The front 7 dominates Polk and the UW offensive line, and the Huskies only put up 20 points. Bradford runs over the UW front 7, and Barkley manages the game effectively in a 31-20 win that exorcises the demons from last year.
None of this this time, fellas.
October 9th at Stanford: “What’s your deal?” USC gets the perfect revenge over last year, as Kiffin does the same to Harbaugh as Harbaugh did to Carroll, going for 2 late in a blowout win. Taylor is no Gerhart, and the 2 missing offensive linemen prove crucial to the loss. Luck shows up like big game Luck. The Stanford defense gets plowed through in a 50 (48+2 point conversion)-13 crusher.
SO AWESOME
October 16th: vs. California: Barkley has his way with a still struggling Cal secondary, but an improve rush defense and special teams unit keeps it from being the blowout it was last year. A late Cal turnover and USC turnover gives the 28-14 final, another triumph for the Trojans to get them to 7-0. They now rank #3 in the latest poll.
Why do I do this to myself?
October 30th vs. Oregon: With a bye to prepare, the Trojans aren’t befuddled by the Duck offense like they were last year. But they do have a solid passer in Nate Costa under center, who is able to do damage to the USC defense, which has been a brick wall all year long. LaMichael James is able to get his yards, and an experienced Oregon defense does just enough. In a 3 OT thriller, James runs it in for the TD and the 2 point conversion. Barkley answers with a touchdown of his own, but Bradford comes up an inch short on the 2 point conversion. It’s labeled “The Game of the Century.” Pollsters respect the Trojans effort, as they only fall to #7.
Just replace Nebraska and Oklahoma with Oregon and USC
November 6th vs. Arizona State: USC responds from their first loss of the year by shellacking the quarterbackless Sun Devils. ASU can’t score a point, and Barkley has a field day against the suspect Sun Devil secondary. Backups play the whole 4th quarter.
This guy's not very good. Honestly. Or at least he wasn't at Michigan.
November 13th at Arizona: Many call for an upset in Tuscon, as the Trojans can’t do this well this late in the season with so few scholarship players and with sanctions on them. Those who call for that are proved wrong, as the Trojans get to quarterback Nick Foles before he can expose the only “weakness” of the USC defense, the secondary. The defensive line records 5.5 sacks, and the linebackers add 1.5 of their own. The front 7 doesn’t allow Grigsby any room, and the Wildcats can’t muster more than 10 points. Bradford runs clear through a front 7 returning 2 starters, and the Trojans roll.
This happens a lot to him against the Trojans, at least in this awful USC winning filled world
November 20th at Oregon State: “Okay,” analysts say. “This where Troy falls.” Given the fact the Beavs seemingly always beat USC, it’s a worthwhile prediction. And for 3 quarters, those analysts seem right. A 14-7 lead led by 2 Rodgers’ touchdowns and the USC offense sucking majorly leads to a deficit that could be more. But Barkley finds Johnson deep. Then he finds Butler for another touchdown. Then Bradford scores a rushing touchdown. A 21-6 run in the 4th gives SC the 28-20 lead and even more respect from the pollsters. Their record runs to 10-1. Notre Dame lurks.
OSU finally loses to USC in Corvallis.
November 27th vs. Notre Dame: For the 3rd straight week, analysts pick against USC. But this time, it’s only Lou Holtz. Everybody else is sold on the Trojans. And they prove it in LA. They run roughshod over their rival, and they just cannot be contained. It’s a statement win, but against a Notre Dame team that will miss a bowl (Yes, it’s that best case for USC).
Sorry, forgot; this never actually happened
December 4th at UCLA: At 5-6, UCLA needs a win to make a bowl. Consider it denied. Prince throws 4 picks, the UCLA running game never gets started, and Bradford runs for 140 yards on UCLA. Lane Kiffin doesn’t throw a run it up touchdown this time, and Slick Rick doesn’t call a timeout. They hand shake at center field, and USC is applauded for their class in going 12-1. The NCAA is vilified for not letting USC go to postseason play.
Postseason: Alabama wins the national title, showing a program can recover from sanctions. USC is #2 in the country. Despite the scholarship reductions, the recruiting class still ranks in the Top 20.
This was painful to write, apart from the Furd and ND predictions. Oh well. Let’s hope this never happens!
In which I tell you the future, here is the second part of this post on how USC’s season could shape out. Coming off a painful best case scenario where I had to write about them winning, now I get to talk about their worst case scenario. Normally, I would give you a short little overview, but I did that already. THE CONTENT:
September 2nd at Hawaii: A blowout is expected. Instead, Hawaii’s pass attack nearly pulls off the upset. With no returning starters in the secondary, the Trojans are ripped to shreds to the tune of 28 points allowed. But the bad Hawaii defense can’t keep up, and a late SC field goal gives them a 31-28 escape.
It's like this guy came back!
September 11th vs. Virginia: Virginia should be outmatched, but somehow they are able to stop the USC offense. They still can’t score, but the game comes down to the wire. Cavaliers just don’t have the horses, and they fall 13-7. An unimpressive 2-0 for the Trojans.
How do you give up a TD to Virginia?
September 18th at Minnesota: Minnesota’s potent passing attack and the 5 returning starters on the offensive line give the Gophers points, and a defense with only 2 returning starters (but both safeties) is able to prevent the big play. Minnesota’s home field advantage plays a part, as a rattled Barkley throws a late pick to sink the Trojans, 27-21.
He held on.
September 25th at Washington State: USC is good enough to win this game, but it comes at a price. Bradford injures his shoulder, and the running game falters. Barkley carries the load in a 27-10 win.
October 2nd vs. Washington: Barkley was hurt coming into last year’s game, and gets hurt…but this time it’s in the actual game. Barkley is hit in the first quarter and doesn’t get up, leading Mitch Mustain to get his chance. He throws 3 picks, and the backups don’t do the job at tailback. Meanwhile, Locker rips up the secondary with little experience from last year. USC falls, 31-13.
Another USC-UW, another upset.
October 9th at Stanford: “What’s your deal?” Part 2 ensues. Stanford simply outphysicals the Trojans, and with the transfer their depth fails them. It doesn’t help that Bradford and Barkley are still out. Stanford rolls, but doesn’t score as many points as they did last year. 45-17 is the embarrassing result. 3-3 is a clear sign that this isn’t the same USC we remember.
This hurts me just as much as it hurts you, USC fans.
October 16th: vs. California: Another game, another loss. Cal’s defense remembers last year’s embarrassment, and avenges it with a dominating performance. Kevin Riley redeems himself from last year, and the wounded Trojans just quit late. Lane Kiffin’s season starts 3-4 and loses 17-3 to the Golden Bears.
I like this.
October 30th vs. Oregon: The 3-4 Trojans are now fully healthy, with a bye week to heal up. For a quarter, it looks like this team is ready to turn it around. USC comes out inspired at home, and takes a 10-0 lead before 15 minutes is up. But to start the second, the Trojans muff a punt and Oregon recovers it and runs it for a touchdown. A interception and run back brings it to 14-10, and the Ducks don’t look back onroute to a 34-16 victory. 3-5 is the new mark for USC.
LOL.
November 6th vs. Arizona State: This USC team is still very talented. And they show it against the Sun Devils. Despite Bradford being shut down by Burfict and the ASU defense, Barkley does just enough to get points. The ASU offense is still awful, and USC escapes 17-6.
November 13th at Arizona: USC still has life. Sure, they do have an awful 4-5 record, but they are still a team loaded with touted recruits. And for one Saturday, Barkley looks like Carson Palmer. Bradford looks like Lendale White, and CJ Gable does a passable Reggie Bush. It is against a porous rush defense, but USC still gets a much needed W, 31-24.
November 20th at Oregon State: It’s the Rodgers’ show. Jacquizz rushes for 160, James receives for 50, and the Beavers run wild on the Trojans. Another date in Corvallis, another Trojan defeat. 31-21 is the final.
November 27th vs. Notre Dame: Fighting Irish haven’t shown much fight all year, and it shows. Sure, Dayne Crist can pass, but the run game never gets untracked. It doesn’t help that this is still a defense that is awful. Sure, it’s a rivalry between two struggling team, but USC gets the better of Notre Dame 16-10. Trojans are now a bowl-eligible 6-6, if they were actually able to make one.
December 4th at UCLA: UCLA has had a breakthrough season. They’re not Rose Bowl bound, but they’re in the upper echelon. And UCLA shows it against the 3-5 Pac-10 play Trojans, destroying them in front of the LA crowd. Many recruits are in attendance, and UCLA gets a flurry of commits. Meanwhile, USC can’t even fill the limited scholarships they have. UCLA takes control of LA, 35-10.
Postseason: As mentioned earlier, USC can’t fill their limited allotment of schollies. Bowl ban is extended for yet another year.
This was so much fun.
Monday, August 9, 2010
Daniel Lasco verbals to Cal; Welcome to Cal Daniel!
Scout.com had this to say about his strengths and weaknesses. Strengths: “Acceleration, Balance, Vision.” Weaknesses: “Power, Size.” Here’s some snippets from his scouting report: “A very smoothe runner, he makes it look effortless… His size does not make him strong between the tackles, but his quickness allows him to get yards between the tackles…”
Rivals.com had this to say about his tools: “Speed Blue Chip. Size, Strength, Agility, Elusiveness Division I player.” The scouts there said that he needs to add muscle and change directions more efficiently, while noting that he is very fast (a 4.4 40) and that he can also shift to safety or receiver. He’s in Rivals’ top 250 for the class of 2011.
Finally, Espn.com. They also mention his ability to shift to other positions, like safety and receiver. They also mention his great speed and acceleration. It is behind a pay wall, so I don’t feel it appropriate to quote it.
I’ll take a look at some of his tape later on, but for now here’s just a quick overview at what the sites are saying about Daniel. Welcome!
Fall Camp started yesterday; what to watch for on defense
Following up on yesterday’s post, here’s what to look for on the defensive side of the ball this fall camp. Here’s the position by position look on defense. Here’s the link to the offensive post: http://since59.blogspot.com/2010/08/fall-camp-starts-today-what-to-watch.html
Defensive Line: Cameron Jordan is a lock on one side as defensive end; the only question for him is if he can channel his immense talent into a breakthrough season. On the other side there will be a competition; it’d appear that Trevor Guyton and Ernest Owusu would be the two competing. Gabe King will be in the mix, but he’s a freshman. There are more talented youngsters in the wings. In the middle, Derrick Hill would appear to be the starter after starting most of last year. Kendrick Payne is pushing him though, and it’ll be interesting to see who is starting verse UC Davis when the time is there.
Outside Linebackers: My guess is that Mychal Kendricks will slide over to the edge; he certainly has the skill and ILB has plenty of depth. Outside needs immediate help, and he fits the build. On the other end, it’s a mess. Will it be Ryan Davis? Keith Browner? Jarred Price? Jerome Meadows? There’s a lot of questions, and not very many answers. This is priority #1 to be resolved.
Inside Linebackers: DJ Holt and Mike Mohamed have to be considered the starters on the inside, considering both of them started last year a bit. Kendricks could play here technically, as it is his position. Behind him could be some freshman, and JP Hurrell and Charles Johnson.
Cornerbacks: More uncertainty. I’d guess that the starting 2 are Josh Hill (who started 5 last year) and Darian Hagan (who started 13 as a sophomore and 4 last year). That is, assuming Hagan doesn’t miss time with academic problems or injuries. Bryant Nnabuife is the discussion as a senior, and he started 4 last year. Marc Anthony got 6 games of experience last year, and Steve Williams has been tabbed as a breakout player by both Tedford and Mike Mohamed. He’s a redshirt freshman.
Safeties: Alas, a little less uncertainty! Chris Conte and Sean Cattouse are penciled in as the two starters. Cattouse is a very solid player in coverage and is the anchor of the secondary. Conte is a little suspect, but he has all the tools to succeed along with the experience. We shall see if DJ Campbell or true freshman Keenan Allen can push him. Allen is the gem of the highly touted recruiting class.
There you go. Keep your eyes on these stories on both sides of the ball during fall camp!
Defensive Line: Cameron Jordan is a lock on one side as defensive end; the only question for him is if he can channel his immense talent into a breakthrough season. On the other side there will be a competition; it’d appear that Trevor Guyton and Ernest Owusu would be the two competing. Gabe King will be in the mix, but he’s a freshman. There are more talented youngsters in the wings. In the middle, Derrick Hill would appear to be the starter after starting most of last year. Kendrick Payne is pushing him though, and it’ll be interesting to see who is starting verse UC Davis when the time is there.
Hopefully we'll see this a lot more in 2010.
Outside Linebackers: My guess is that Mychal Kendricks will slide over to the edge; he certainly has the skill and ILB has plenty of depth. Outside needs immediate help, and he fits the build. On the other end, it’s a mess. Will it be Ryan Davis? Keith Browner? Jarred Price? Jerome Meadows? There’s a lot of questions, and not very many answers. This is priority #1 to be resolved.
The whole 10 men on defense works like a charm here.
Inside Linebackers: DJ Holt and Mike Mohamed have to be considered the starters on the inside, considering both of them started last year a bit. Kendricks could play here technically, as it is his position. Behind him could be some freshman, and JP Hurrell and Charles Johnson.
Epic.
Cornerbacks: More uncertainty. I’d guess that the starting 2 are Josh Hill (who started 5 last year) and Darian Hagan (who started 13 as a sophomore and 4 last year). That is, assuming Hagan doesn’t miss time with academic problems or injuries. Bryant Nnabuife is the discussion as a senior, and he started 4 last year. Marc Anthony got 6 games of experience last year, and Steve Williams has been tabbed as a breakout player by both Tedford and Mike Mohamed. He’s a redshirt freshman.
None of this in 2010, OK Hagan?
Safeties: Alas, a little less uncertainty! Chris Conte and Sean Cattouse are penciled in as the two starters. Cattouse is a very solid player in coverage and is the anchor of the secondary. Conte is a little suspect, but he has all the tools to succeed along with the experience. We shall see if DJ Campbell or true freshman Keenan Allen can push him. Allen is the gem of the highly touted recruiting class.
Go Conte!
There you go. Keep your eyes on these stories on both sides of the ball during fall camp!
Sunday, August 8, 2010
Fall Camp starts today: What to watch for on offense?
Sorry about the lack of writing recently, I’ve had a personal problem. I should be back up and running though. As you probably know, fall camp starts today and the football season will soon follow it. Here’s a position by position look on what to look for, offensively:
Quarterback: Kevin Riley’s development could hold the key to the year. If he has a breakout year, the sky is the limit. Accuracy and his reads will be the main things for him to improve upon. Brock Mansion and Beau Sweeney will jostle for the #2 job in camp as well. Whoever wins has an instant leg-up in replacing Riley next season.
Running Back: Vereen is entrenched as starter; the only real intrigue is how he recovers from knee surgery. However, Covaughn DeBoskie, Dasarte Yarnway, and Isi Sofele are all in the mix to spell him. DeBoskie has to be the favorite, although Sofele does present a nice speedy option and Yarnway is a good downhill runner. DeBoskie is more of a balanced runner.
Receivers: Jones and Ross are pretty well set as the starting 2; Lagemann can’t say he’s safe in the slot but he’s close. Keenan Allen, Tevin Carter, and Coleman Edmond all present incoming options that could play a part. Michael Calvin seems to have been around forever, but he’s still a junior and still has upside. Anthony Miller is still the starter and looks to prove himself as one of the top tight ends. Spencer Ladner is a better blocker, while Jarrett Sparks is a better threat in the passing game. They will compete for the second tight end.
Offensive Line: Competitions almost everywhere. What we do know: Matt Summers-Gavin is the left tackle, and Mitchell Schwartz will likely bookend him. Justin Cheadle does have a nasty talent of committing bad penalties, but he’s still the probably right guard. Chris Guarnero will start somewhere. The competition is between Brian Schwenke and Mark Brazinski; Brazinski a redshirt freshman center and Schwenke a relatively experienced junior guard. They will duke it out. I’d take Schwenke to win, with him being the LG and Guarnero being the center. Guarnero will take the LG if Brazinski plays the center spot.
Part 2 tomorrow.
Quarterback: Kevin Riley’s development could hold the key to the year. If he has a breakout year, the sky is the limit. Accuracy and his reads will be the main things for him to improve upon. Brock Mansion and Beau Sweeney will jostle for the #2 job in camp as well. Whoever wins has an instant leg-up in replacing Riley next season.
Running Back: Vereen is entrenched as starter; the only real intrigue is how he recovers from knee surgery. However, Covaughn DeBoskie, Dasarte Yarnway, and Isi Sofele are all in the mix to spell him. DeBoskie has to be the favorite, although Sofele does present a nice speedy option and Yarnway is a good downhill runner. DeBoskie is more of a balanced runner.
Receivers: Jones and Ross are pretty well set as the starting 2; Lagemann can’t say he’s safe in the slot but he’s close. Keenan Allen, Tevin Carter, and Coleman Edmond all present incoming options that could play a part. Michael Calvin seems to have been around forever, but he’s still a junior and still has upside. Anthony Miller is still the starter and looks to prove himself as one of the top tight ends. Spencer Ladner is a better blocker, while Jarrett Sparks is a better threat in the passing game. They will compete for the second tight end.
Offensive Line: Competitions almost everywhere. What we do know: Matt Summers-Gavin is the left tackle, and Mitchell Schwartz will likely bookend him. Justin Cheadle does have a nasty talent of committing bad penalties, but he’s still the probably right guard. Chris Guarnero will start somewhere. The competition is between Brian Schwenke and Mark Brazinski; Brazinski a redshirt freshman center and Schwenke a relatively experienced junior guard. They will duke it out. I’d take Schwenke to win, with him being the LG and Guarnero being the center. Guarnero will take the LG if Brazinski plays the center spot.
Part 2 tomorrow.
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