In case you haven’t heard, I have moved my writing to fellow Cal blog Golden Bear Lair. It’s a great opportunity, and I’m happy to move my writing over there.
When I started this blog around this time last year, Cal was rolling toward a Pac-10 championship and fighting for NCAA Tournament position. A lot has changed. The basketball team made the tournament and got to the second round, while the football team went through a 5-7 disappointment. A lot has happened for me as well. A tough transition in the real world caused me to leave the blog for a while, but now I’m back.
With that being said, it’s time to say goodbye. I put a lot of effort into the blog, and I’m happy with what I did with it. That being said, it was time to move on and I think Golden Bear Lair is a great fit. Go over there, and read what we can put together!
Tuesday, March 8, 2011
Friday, February 11, 2011
On why margin of victory is important, and Cal loses to Washington 109-77
There’s no use recapping this game. Cal just got smoked. The defense was bad, the offense was bad, everything was bad. Recapping it would just make me want to kill myself.
Cal has shown a talent at winning close games. It’s probably something that will never be quantified, the ability to win close games, but it’s something that exists, at least in the sample of a season. Cal has lost 5 games within 10, and won 8. That’s not great, but an 8-5 record is an advantage to have. And that “it” factor, of having the kind of players you trust late in the game, we have that. Kamp, Gutierrez, Crabbe…those are the kind of players I want late in the game. That’s why losing a game like this is a pain.
Making the tournament would be a huge surprise, and a huge success. We shouldn’t expect that; given our history, we shouldn’t hope for it. But I’m irrational, dang it. And I want to see this team win as many games as they can. There’s no draft pick at stake, no draft lottery to hope for.
That’s why saying a “Loss is a loss” doesn’t quite work. A blowout loss is a lot different than a triple overtime loss, even if they count the same. Just like a blowout win is a lot different than a close win. Why is this?
I know it files under “well, duh,” but it bears saying. A close game is one that can be affected by any number of things that can best be described as luck. Bad calls, lucky shots, an untimely turnover- all can be the difference between winning and losing in a close game. But in a blowout, it doesn’t mean anything. Obviously, winning the blowout game is preferable- but it can’t always be done. So putting yourself in a situation where you can get some breaks is far better than having no chance.
I’m still very optimistic. This team has shown it can put itself in the right spots, not getting blown out very often. The 37th youngest team in the country is holding its own in a power conference. That’s the most we can expect. Now, let’s not have another one of these, ok? Keep putting yourselves in the right spots. Go Bears!
Cal has shown a talent at winning close games. It’s probably something that will never be quantified, the ability to win close games, but it’s something that exists, at least in the sample of a season. Cal has lost 5 games within 10, and won 8. That’s not great, but an 8-5 record is an advantage to have. And that “it” factor, of having the kind of players you trust late in the game, we have that. Kamp, Gutierrez, Crabbe…those are the kind of players I want late in the game. That’s why losing a game like this is a pain.
Making the tournament would be a huge surprise, and a huge success. We shouldn’t expect that; given our history, we shouldn’t hope for it. But I’m irrational, dang it. And I want to see this team win as many games as they can. There’s no draft pick at stake, no draft lottery to hope for.
That’s why saying a “Loss is a loss” doesn’t quite work. A blowout loss is a lot different than a triple overtime loss, even if they count the same. Just like a blowout win is a lot different than a close win. Why is this?
I know it files under “well, duh,” but it bears saying. A close game is one that can be affected by any number of things that can best be described as luck. Bad calls, lucky shots, an untimely turnover- all can be the difference between winning and losing in a close game. But in a blowout, it doesn’t mean anything. Obviously, winning the blowout game is preferable- but it can’t always be done. So putting yourself in a situation where you can get some breaks is far better than having no chance.
I’m still very optimistic. This team has shown it can put itself in the right spots, not getting blown out very often. The 37th youngest team in the country is holding its own in a power conference. That’s the most we can expect. Now, let’s not have another one of these, ok? Keep putting yourselves in the right spots. Go Bears!
Wednesday, February 9, 2011
Quality, and the lack of it in College Hoops right now
The expansion to 68 in the NCAA Tournament probably could not have happened at a worse time. Many are noting the lack of quality teams in the NCAA this year. Are they correct in this take, or is a bunch of lies?
First off, I understand the effect schedule has on seeding. A 20 win major-conference team is in the NCAAs 9 times out of 10, while a mid-major with “only” 20 will have their hopes set on the NIT. I understand this.
The 50th best team in the nation, according to KenPom, are the USC Trojans. Their overall record sits at 12-11. They have an offensive efficiency rating of 107.6, and a defense of 93.1. The nation’s average is 101.3, so they are above average in both categories. Being the 50th team probably puts USC in the discussion for the tourney at the very least.
St. John’s went 17-16 last year, in the toughest conference in the nation, the Big East. The Red Storm were ranked 67th in the country. They finished 17-16. In an average setting of 100.8, their offensive was rated at 106.2 and their defense was 92.8. So basically, their defenses were virtually identical based on seasonal, and USC has a slight advantage. St. John’s had a tougher schedule. Both have 2 Top-40 wins, although USC has done it at a better per game clip.
Central Florida is ranked 92nd, despite being only 14-7, with a mere 102.3 OE and a 94.5 DE. Their schedule is ranked 192nd in the nation. You know who’s probably just as good? Last year’s 117th, William and Mary, who has a similar winning style (W&M was 22-11). W&M played a tougher schedule and had a 107.6 OE, but a 101.4 DE. Similar? Yes. UCF is clearly better, but not by as much as you might think. W&M wasn’t given any consideration last year, while UCF’s been in the Top 25 and clearly has an at-large case going for them.
The point? It’s not going to take a lot to get to the tourney this year. Teams like USC, who would be dismissed in a normal year, are in right now. If a Pac-10 team like Cal can get to around 19 wins, which normally is unimpressive and especially in a down year, they are in serious talks for the tourney. Not saying they can do it, but beating both the Oregons (2 wins), beating the Furd (3), and taking 2 from the UWs and the LA schools (5) and the Bears would have 18. Win 1 Pac-10 tournament game, and Cal would be at that 19 point.
Would that get them in? Probably not. But with a weak climate in college hoops right now, it’s anybody’s ball game. A team with 11 wins and in a power conference can get into an at-large bid at this point, if they play well. I don’t think you can count out a team in the Top 100 right now, although a team like Georgia Tech or Indiana does skew the system a bit. Both are under .500, but who knows at this point?
College basketball is pretty darn weak in terms of at-large candidates. What does it mean? Cal has a chance to sneak in, as do any number of other teams. Don’t write off anybody because they don’t “look” like a tourney team. Based on “looks”, you miss the fact there aren’t 68 “worthy” teams out there. And for anyone who saw Cal lose 80-64 last year to Oregon State, they know looks don’t tell the story. Go Bears!
First off, I understand the effect schedule has on seeding. A 20 win major-conference team is in the NCAAs 9 times out of 10, while a mid-major with “only” 20 will have their hopes set on the NIT. I understand this.
The 50th best team in the nation, according to KenPom, are the USC Trojans. Their overall record sits at 12-11. They have an offensive efficiency rating of 107.6, and a defense of 93.1. The nation’s average is 101.3, so they are above average in both categories. Being the 50th team probably puts USC in the discussion for the tourney at the very least.
St. John’s went 17-16 last year, in the toughest conference in the nation, the Big East. The Red Storm were ranked 67th in the country. They finished 17-16. In an average setting of 100.8, their offensive was rated at 106.2 and their defense was 92.8. So basically, their defenses were virtually identical based on seasonal, and USC has a slight advantage. St. John’s had a tougher schedule. Both have 2 Top-40 wins, although USC has done it at a better per game clip.
Central Florida is ranked 92nd, despite being only 14-7, with a mere 102.3 OE and a 94.5 DE. Their schedule is ranked 192nd in the nation. You know who’s probably just as good? Last year’s 117th, William and Mary, who has a similar winning style (W&M was 22-11). W&M played a tougher schedule and had a 107.6 OE, but a 101.4 DE. Similar? Yes. UCF is clearly better, but not by as much as you might think. W&M wasn’t given any consideration last year, while UCF’s been in the Top 25 and clearly has an at-large case going for them.
The point? It’s not going to take a lot to get to the tourney this year. Teams like USC, who would be dismissed in a normal year, are in right now. If a Pac-10 team like Cal can get to around 19 wins, which normally is unimpressive and especially in a down year, they are in serious talks for the tourney. Not saying they can do it, but beating both the Oregons (2 wins), beating the Furd (3), and taking 2 from the UWs and the LA schools (5) and the Bears would have 18. Win 1 Pac-10 tournament game, and Cal would be at that 19 point.
Would that get them in? Probably not. But with a weak climate in college hoops right now, it’s anybody’s ball game. A team with 11 wins and in a power conference can get into an at-large bid at this point, if they play well. I don’t think you can count out a team in the Top 100 right now, although a team like Georgia Tech or Indiana does skew the system a bit. Both are under .500, but who knows at this point?
College basketball is pretty darn weak in terms of at-large candidates. What does it mean? Cal has a chance to sneak in, as do any number of other teams. Don’t write off anybody because they don’t “look” like a tourney team. Based on “looks”, you miss the fact there aren’t 68 “worthy” teams out there. And for anyone who saw Cal lose 80-64 last year to Oregon State, they know looks don’t tell the story. Go Bears!
Saturday, February 5, 2011
You can’t always win; Triple Overtime declares Arizona the winner, 107-105
Cal had the game won. Doesn’t take away from what Arizona did, doesn’t take away from what our Bears did. They played one heck of a game. In a game like this, someone has to lose. We’ll go with some quick takes:
I can’t say enough about the job the Bears did defensively. There were lapses that happen at inopportune times, but holding the best player in the Pac to 12 points is simply terrific. Shutting down Williams was the difference between overtime and a loss by 5 or more in regulation.
I strongly dislike Momo Jones. The smug attitude, the cockiness, and the way he carries himself rubs me the wrong way. Doesn’t take away from what he did. He kept Arizona alive: The And 1, and the 3 at the end of the second OT are a pair of the biggest shots I’ve seen all year from any player. When Arizona needed the bucket in the third overtime and a minute left, Jones got it. I have to give the kid a lot of credit.
Brandon Smith has to be the sickest kid in the world after the missed lay-up, but he didn’t lose the game. Last year, I thought he wasn’t a Pac-10 player. He’s developed into a fine passing point guard. The scoring still isn’t quite there, but I have confidence when the ball is in his hands. That’s a good way to judge a point guard, and Brandon passes my test.
Pac-10 refs. What else can you say?
Jorge needs to rein it in a little bit. 6 turnovers are too much. Still loved everything else. Night in and night out, he provides the leadership this team needs and plays stellar defense. The offense is just an added bonus. Could have used him in the overtimes.
Harper Kamp is a joy to watch. The more basketball I watch, the more I realize how tough it is to find a big guy who rebounds, has a post game, and won’t kill you at the free throw line. He does all of that, and to boot he’s a fine leader and a representative of the university.
Four years from now, we’re going to say, “Remember when Allen Crabbe was the scared little freshman who took 6 shots a game?” Ever since Pac-10 play, we’ve seen a new Crabbe. The kid’s a scorer, and he’s got the killer instinct you look for. Look for signs that say, “I’ve never been happier to have Crabs!”
The bench is not ready. Bak Bak, Solomon (who did have his moments), and Murray just aren’t there. This is probably where we miss Franklin the most (even though we haven’t missed him all that much; still wish him the best) in that we don’t have 6 Pac-10 ready players on the squad. I’m sure all 3 of them will end up fine, but they’re not ready as freshman/sophomores.
For a rebuilding year, this team is pretty darn good. Having the Pac-10’s best the whole way and losing it at the end is no shame. The work does not end tonight however. The roughest road trip in the conference awaits up north against the Washingtons, and to get a single win will take the Golden Bears A game. Go Bears!
I can’t say enough about the job the Bears did defensively. There were lapses that happen at inopportune times, but holding the best player in the Pac to 12 points is simply terrific. Shutting down Williams was the difference between overtime and a loss by 5 or more in regulation.
I strongly dislike Momo Jones. The smug attitude, the cockiness, and the way he carries himself rubs me the wrong way. Doesn’t take away from what he did. He kept Arizona alive: The And 1, and the 3 at the end of the second OT are a pair of the biggest shots I’ve seen all year from any player. When Arizona needed the bucket in the third overtime and a minute left, Jones got it. I have to give the kid a lot of credit.
Brandon Smith has to be the sickest kid in the world after the missed lay-up, but he didn’t lose the game. Last year, I thought he wasn’t a Pac-10 player. He’s developed into a fine passing point guard. The scoring still isn’t quite there, but I have confidence when the ball is in his hands. That’s a good way to judge a point guard, and Brandon passes my test.
Pac-10 refs. What else can you say?
Jorge needs to rein it in a little bit. 6 turnovers are too much. Still loved everything else. Night in and night out, he provides the leadership this team needs and plays stellar defense. The offense is just an added bonus. Could have used him in the overtimes.
Harper Kamp is a joy to watch. The more basketball I watch, the more I realize how tough it is to find a big guy who rebounds, has a post game, and won’t kill you at the free throw line. He does all of that, and to boot he’s a fine leader and a representative of the university.
Four years from now, we’re going to say, “Remember when Allen Crabbe was the scared little freshman who took 6 shots a game?” Ever since Pac-10 play, we’ve seen a new Crabbe. The kid’s a scorer, and he’s got the killer instinct you look for. Look for signs that say, “I’ve never been happier to have Crabs!”
The bench is not ready. Bak Bak, Solomon (who did have his moments), and Murray just aren’t there. This is probably where we miss Franklin the most (even though we haven’t missed him all that much; still wish him the best) in that we don’t have 6 Pac-10 ready players on the squad. I’m sure all 3 of them will end up fine, but they’re not ready as freshman/sophomores.
For a rebuilding year, this team is pretty darn good. Having the Pac-10’s best the whole way and losing it at the end is no shame. The work does not end tonight however. The roughest road trip in the conference awaits up north against the Washingtons, and to get a single win will take the Golden Bears A game. Go Bears!
Monday, December 27, 2010
A quick look at Hartford, the Tuesday opponent for the Bears
Hartford is pretty bad. They are 2-8 against a weak schedule, and ranked 275th in the KenPom ratings.
Joe Zeglinski will run the point, and he has an assist rate in the Top 500 in the country. The Bears have two in the Top 150, so it’s not as if that’s an overly impressive stat for Zeglinski. Morgan Sabia is a 6-8 senior who will man the point. He blocks shots and plays good defense while shooting 55% from the field. Milton Burton and Anthony Minor also man the guard/forward spots, while Genesis Maciel complements Sabia in the lineup.
Say one thing for this team: they’re experienced, and they don’t lose by all that much. While all the team’s they’ve lost to our bad (expect Florida State), they’ve been in every game they’ve played (except FSU). Considering the Bears have had problems putting away any team this year, including the Cal Polys and UC Davis’ of the world, this could spell a close game in Berkeley.
While there is little chance of the Bears losing (3% chance of losing), one has to wonder if the Bears will find themselves in a battle. Hartford, like us, plays awful offense and better defense (Hartford is nowhere near Cal in defense, though). It could be like the 51-41 affair we found ourselves in against Cal Poly.
Joe Zeglinski will run the point, and he has an assist rate in the Top 500 in the country. The Bears have two in the Top 150, so it’s not as if that’s an overly impressive stat for Zeglinski. Morgan Sabia is a 6-8 senior who will man the point. He blocks shots and plays good defense while shooting 55% from the field. Milton Burton and Anthony Minor also man the guard/forward spots, while Genesis Maciel complements Sabia in the lineup.
Say one thing for this team: they’re experienced, and they don’t lose by all that much. While all the team’s they’ve lost to our bad (expect Florida State), they’ve been in every game they’ve played (except FSU). Considering the Bears have had problems putting away any team this year, including the Cal Polys and UC Davis’ of the world, this could spell a close game in Berkeley.
While there is little chance of the Bears losing (3% chance of losing), one has to wonder if the Bears will find themselves in a battle. Hartford, like us, plays awful offense and better defense (Hartford is nowhere near Cal in defense, though). It could be like the 51-41 affair we found ourselves in against Cal Poly.
Sunday, December 26, 2010
How is Cal doing at this stage in the season?
Does Mike Montgomery have the Bears in a spot where they want to be?
At the time, California is 6-5. Using only KenPom ratings, they’re ranked as the #75 team in the country. Assuming a victory over Hartford, the Bears would be 7-5 going into Pac-10 conference play. His ranking project them to go 7-11 in Pac-10 play, leaving them at 14-16. Ignoring the projections; has this been a successful non-conference season for Cal? First, the expected: if one had to forecast the W-L of Cal in the non-conference, you’d probably put victories over CSU Northridge, UC Davis, and Cal Poly in pen. Question mark games would be New Mexico, Southern Mississippi, San Diego State, and Iowa State. Expected losses would be Temple and Kansas. Notre Dame would probably also in the expected loss category, while Boston College probably be there too. Looking at that, you’d expect a record around 5-6.
But looking at the numbers, you have to factor in that the team’s they beat are better than expected. Iowa State, SDSU, New Mexico, and even Southern Miss are surprises in the way they’ve played recently. The Golden Bears have quality wins over Temple, New Mexico, and Iowa State. The only “bad” loss is Southern Miss, who’s actually having a fine year at 9-2. 3 good wins, 0 bad losses? It’s not great, but considering the youth we have it’s definitely what we’re looking for.
An outright success this start is not, but it is definitely not a failure. A 10 win conference season and 2 conference tourney wins would have the Bears at 19 wins, which would be a huge success. When it’s all said and done, Mike Montgomery has done a fine job and the Bears are right where they want to be.
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
For now
This blog is on hold. I just don’t have the time to maintain it. Maybe I’ll be back soon, maybe I’ll never come back. All I know is that I’m too busy to give the effort required to do what I want to do with the blog.
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